A potential resurgence of inflationary pressures is at the forefront among the reasons the FOMC has not cut the Fed Funds Target Rate since the December 2024 meeting. Recently, market pricing indicated less than a 10% change of a cut at the July 31 meeting, while there is an over 60% chance of a cut at the September 17 meeting. An unexpectedly strong or weak CPI Tuesday before the market open could dramatically change that outlook. also, an outlier CPI report could also have a big impact on the Nasdaq-100 (NDX). The following table summarizes NDX price action and option price activity on CPI-day.
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” v:shapes=”Picture_x0020_5″ loading=”lazy”>
Sources: Barchart.com and Author Calculations
NDX has had an average move of +/-1.36% over the last twelve days when CPI was reported before the Stock market opening. This is only 25 basis points higher than the average on all trading days over the same twelve-month period of +/-1.11%. Last month there was a relatively low loss of 0.37%. A seller of 1-day NDX at-the-money (ATM) straddles the day before the CPI report would profit 50% of the last reports and realize losses 50% of the reports. However, the losses outpaced the gains with a cumulative net loss of over 350 points.
The next chart shows each of the last twelve reactions with the absolute value of the average of those reports. Most of the price changes that exceeded the average move were bullish versus bearish. However, the biggest outlier was the move lower in April.
Sources: Barchart.com and Author Calculations
The final chart covering NDX price action around CPI demonstrates the ATM straddle premium on the close the day before CPI and then settlement, based on holding through the close. Before last month, option sellers did not fare well, especially around the April report, which also coincided with excess volatility associated with the tariff announcements.
Sources: Barchart.com and Author Calculations
One of the major benefits of using options to speculate on underlying price changes is that traders may benefit from bullish, bearish, and even neutral outlooks. Checking the tape around the close the day before CPI, it appears couple of traders correctly speculated on the muted reaction through using vertical spreads.
One trade benefitting from the lack of movement in rection to last month’s CPI sold the NDX Jun11th 21990 Call for 62.65 and purchased the NDX Jun 11th 22000 Call for 58.45 resulting in a credit of 4.00 and a payoff, if held through the close depicted below.
Sources: Barchart.com and Author Calculations
NDX was around 21,919 when this trade was executed, but it did settle a little higher at 21,942. We measure the short strike distance from the NDX price when the trade was executed since that was the market at the time the decision was made. Based on that, there was only a 0.32% spread between NDX and the short 21990 strike. NDX did trade as high as 22,041 on June 11, but managed to settle lower at 21,860, resulting in a maximum profit of 4.00 for this trade.
On the flip side, there was a bullish vertical spread executed less than a minute before the close on June 10. With NDX at 21942, a trade sold the NDX Jun 11th 21800 Put for 54.50 who also purchased the Jun 11th 21500 Put for 9.00 taking in a credit of 45.50. The precarious dollar risk reward for this trade appears below.
Sources: Barchart.com and Author Calculations
The maximum gain for this trade is the 45.50 credit received if NDX does not move more than 0.65% lower on the day. The worst-case scenario would be a loss of 255.50 if NDX settled at or below 21,500. This is a move of 2.05% lower, which could have occurred if there had been a higher CPI than expected. However, this trade correctly predicted NDX would not close below 21,800 in reaction to the CPI, enough of a cushion to realize the maximum profit for this trade.





