On Friday, July NY world sugar #11 closed down by 0.14 points (-0.86%), marking a new 4-year low in sugar prices. This decline comes amid expectations of a global sugar surplus, with the USDA projecting a 4.7% year-over-year increase in global 2025/26 sugar production, reaching a record 189.318 million metric tons (MMT), accompanied by a surplus of 41.188 MMT.
India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer, forecasts a 19% year-on-year increase in its sugar production to 35 MMT due to favorable rainfall and increased planted acreage, while Brazil’s production is expected to rise by 2.3% to a record 44.7 MMT. However, Brazil reported a decrease in its current sugar production by 22.7% year-on-year in the first half of May.
The International Sugar Organization has raised its 2024/25 global sugar deficit forecast to -5.47 MMT, indicating tightening market conditions following last season’s surplus. In contrast, the USDA projects a 1.4% increase in global sugar consumption to a record 177.921 MMT for 2025/26, along with a 7.5% rise in global ending stocks.
