May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) closed down 0.04 points (-0.30%) on Tuesday, while August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ26) increased by 4.40 points (+1.05%). Sugar prices have been under pressure, with NY sugar reaching a 5.5-year low last Friday due to expectations of ample global supplies and weak demand. The May London sugar contract expired last Wednesday with 472,650 metric tons delivered, the highest for a May contract in 14 years.
The USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production at 42.5 million metric tons, a 3% decrease year-over-year, as millers focus on ethanol production. Additionally, Covrig Analytics reduced its global sugar surplus estimate for 2026/27 to 800,000 metric tons from 1.4 million. Furthermore, rising crude oil prices, which jumped 2% on Tuesday, are likely to support sugar prices, as higher oil prices can lead to increased ethanol production and a consequent reduction in sugar supply.
On March 27, Unica reported a 0.7% increase in cumulative sugar output from Brazil’s Center-South region for the 2025-26 cycle, totaling 40.25 million metric tons. India’s sugar production was also projected to increase by 12% year-over-year to 29.3 million metric tons for the 2025/26 season, providing potential for boosted exports amid rising global production forecasts released by the International Sugar Organization (ISO) and the USDA.
