May arabica coffee (KCK26) closed down $3.20 (-1.10%), and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) fell $25 (-0.72%) on Tuesday, reaching a 7-week low as forecasts of a record Brazilian coffee crop weighed on prices. Marex Group Plc projects Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop at 75.9 million bags, surpassing Sucafina’s prediction of 75.4 million bags and representing an annual increase of 15.5%.
Simultaneously, robusta coffee inventories reached a 16-month low of 3,788 lots, limiting further losses. Vietnam’s coffee exports increased by 14% year-on-year to 585,000 MT in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting robust supply from the world’s largest robusta producer. Additionally, lower exports from Brazil, down 10% year-on-year to 2.65 million bags in March, and below-average rainfall in key growing regions could support coffee prices moving forward.
