As of July 2023, NY world sugar #11 has risen by 1.81%, reaching a one-month high, while the London ICE white sugar #5 is not trading due to the UK’s May Day holiday. A recent 3% surge in gasoline prices is contributing to this increase, as it may lead sugar mills to prioritize ethanol production over sugar, thereby reducing sugar supplies.
On April 21, Green Pool Commodity Specialists revised their global 2026/27 sugar deficit estimate from -1.66 million metric tons (MMT) to -4.30 MMT, attributing it to increased ethanol production shifts in Brazil. Brazil’s sugar production for the 2026/27 season is forecasted to decline by about 3% to 42.5 MMT, based on reduced cane crushing for sugar.
Ongoing geopolitical tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted approximately 6% of the world’s sugar trade, further tightening the supply. Concurrently, India is expected to produce a sugar surplus of 2.5 MMT for 2026/27, following a trend of increasing production driven by favorable conditions.
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