On Monday, May arabica coffee (KCK26) closed up by 2.90 cents (+1.00%), while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) increased by 94 cents (+2.77%). The rise in coffee prices follows Iran’s announcement that the Strait of Hormuz is closed to shipping, heightening global shipping rates and costs for coffee importers due to supply constraints.
Despite the increase, forecasts of a record 2026/27 Brazilian coffee crop, estimated at 75.9 million bags by Marex Group, limit price gains. Additionally, Vietnam’s coffee exports surged by 14% year-on-year in January-March 2026, and Brazilian coffee exports dropped by 10%, indicating mixed market pressures.
Weather conditions also play a critical role, as below-average rainfall in Brazil’s arabica coffee-growing region of Minas Gerais could further influence prices, with only 20% of normal rainfall recorded last week.
