As of today, May arabica coffee (KCK26) rose by +2.70 (+0.93%) and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) increased by +100 (+2.95%). The rise in coffee prices follows Iran’s announcement on Saturday that the Strait of Hormuz was closed to shipping due to the US’s refusal to lift a naval blockade, tightening coffee supplies and inflating global shipping costs.
In additional developments, ICE robusta inventories dropped to a 16-month low of 3,788 lots. Meanwhile, expectations of a record Brazilian coffee crop continue to limit price surges, with Marex Group projecting a 2026/27 harvest of 75.9 million bags and StoneX estimating a 2026 global coffee surplus of 10 million bags, up from 1.8 million in 2025.
However, robusta prices face pressure from soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, which saw a 14% year-over-year increase to 585,000 MT for early 2026. In contrast, Brazilian coffee exports fell by 10% year-over-year to 2.65 million bags in March. Additionally, below-average rainfall in major Brazilian coffee-growing areas could impact yields positively for prices.
