As of today, September 4, 2023, the S&P 500 Index is down 0.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen 0.14%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is down 0.15%, primarily due to rising crude oil prices, which are up over 2%. This increase in oil prices is fueling inflation expectations and pushing the 10-year Treasury note yield to 4.68%, up by 3 basis points.
In key market movements, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported a 45% year-over-year increase in July sales, bolstering optimism in AI spending. JPMorgan Chase raised its year-end projection for the S&P 500 to 8,000 from 7,800, citing a strong earnings season with expected Q2 earnings growth near 32%, exceeding initial projections of 23%. Additionally, the Eurozone’s August Sentix investor confidence index rose to a 6-month high of 0.9, compared to expectations of -0.5, indicating improved market sentiment.
Internationally, European markets are trending upward, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.10% and China’s Shanghai Composite increasing by 0.67%. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve at the September 15-16 meeting stands at 47%. In contrast, markets are pricing in an 87% chance of a similar increase by the European Central Bank during its next meeting.
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