**Sugar Prices Surge to 16-Month High Amid Global Supply Concerns**
On October 9, 2023, sugar prices soared, with New York world sugar #11 (SBV26) climbing by 1.63% to close at +0.27, and London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) rising 2.31% to +11.80. This increase comes in the context of a significant shift in global sugar supply forecasts, with Covrig Analytics predicting a deficit of 300,000 metric tons (MT) for the 2026/27 crop year, a stark change from a previously expected surplus of 100,000 MT.
Additionally, Brazil’s Center-South sugar production fell 26.3% year-over-year to 3.903 MMT in June, and the EU’s sugar output is projected to decline to 14.98 MMT, the lowest in 11 years due to adverse weather conditions. India’s monsoon rainfall has also been reported to be 13% below normal, exacerbating production concerns as it enters its final months. The current market dynamics are further intensified by expectations of an El Niño weather pattern, which may disrupt the harvests in major sugar-producing regions including Brazil, India, and Thailand.
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