Soybean Futures Rally Amid Positive Market Signals
Soybean bulls made gains on Thursday, with contracts increasing by 4 to 6 cents across most front months. Despite a weak opening to the shortened session, CmdtyView’s national front month Cash Bean price rose by a penny to reach $9.43 3/4. Meanwhile, Soymeal futures experienced a decline of 80 cents, settling at $2.20 per ton. In contrast, Soy Oil futures advanced by 103 to 117 points as reports emerged about upcoming guidance on 45Z tax credits expected this Friday.
Export Sales Report Delay
The weekly Export Sales report has been postponed until Friday due to government offices being closed in observance of a National Day of Mourning for President Carter’s funeral. Traders anticipate soybean sales for the 2024/25 season to range from 0.4 to 1.3 million metric tons (MMT), with an additional 0-100,000 MT expected for the 2025/26 season in the week of January 2. Estimates for meal sales stand at 150,000 to 400,000 MT, while bean oil sales are expected to be between 20,000 and 60,000 MT.
Weather Conditions and Upcoming Reports
The next week looks drier for much of Argentina and southern Brazil; however, the 8-14 day forecast indicates wetter conditions leading up to January 20-25. On Friday, the USDA plans to release several critical reports. Market expectations are for US soybean yield to decrease by 0.1 bushel per acre (bpa) to 51.6 bpa. Additionally, production is predicted to drop by 8 million bushels (mbu) to 4.453 billion bushels (bbu), reflecting a slight increase in harvested acres compared to the November report. The Grain Stocks report is also expected, with estimates around 3.231 bbu, which is 231 mbu higher than the December 1, 2023 figure. Analysts project that the WASDE report will reveal US ending stocks at 457 mbu.
Global Crop Outlook
Globally, analysts predict the Brazilian soybean crop to rise by 1.28 MMT to reach 170.28 MMT, while Argentina’s crop is expected to decrease slightly to 51.91 MMT. Ending stocks worldwide are anticipated to be around 132.20 MMT, representing an increase of 0.33 MMT compared to December figures.
Closing Prices
Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.92 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents.
Nearby Cash was $9.43 1/2, an increase of 4 1/2 cents.
Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.99, up 4 1/2 cents.
Jul 25 Soybeans finished at $10.23 1/4, gaining 5 1/4 cents.
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data are for informational purposes only. For more information, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
