Soybean Market Update: Fluctuations Despite Friday Gains
After a brief recovery on Friday, soybean contracts have entered a downturn again, dropping by 7 to 9 cents. During Friday’s trading, bulls managed to increase prices, resulting in gains of 5 to 11 cents for several contracts. However, January futures closed the week down 3.08%. Preliminary open interest on Friday showed a rise of 7,715 contracts, indicating net new buying activity. CmdtyView reported a national front month cash bean price increase of 11 cents, reaching $9.46 3/4. Supporting this, soymeal futures rose between $1.30 and $2.60 per ton, while soy oil futures gained 75 to 93 points in the same session. Notably, China plans to remove the tax rebate on exported used cooking oil starting December 1, which may reduce imported used cooking oil for biodiesel production.
Data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) on Friday revealed an unexpected record high in soybean crushing for October. The total reached 199.96 million bushels (mbu), surpassing the estimated 196.84 mbu and showing a 5.37% increase compared to October 2022. However, stocks of soybean oil were lower than anticipated, totaling 1.069 billion pounds on October 31, which was a decrease of 2.8% from last year.
Additionally, Friday’s Weekly Export Sales report noted soybean sales of 1.555 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2024/25 marketing year. This figure fell within the expected range of 1 to 2.2 MMT and marked a five-week low in bookings. China topped the list of buyers with 1.18 MMT, followed by Egypt, which purchased 127,700 MT.
In the same report, meal sales for the week ending November 7 totaled 302,413 MT. This amount indicates a decrease from the previous week but remains within the estimated range of 175,000 to 540,000 MT. Conversely, soybean oil sales declined from a multi-year high to 16,469 MT, showing an upward trend compared to prior weeks.
According to the Commitment of Traders data, speculators in soybean futures and options reduced their net short positions by 15,576 contracts, bringing their total to 54,536 contracts as of Tuesday. In contrast, commercial traders increased their net short positions by 14,726 contracts, totaling 44,176 contracts by November 12.
AgRural has estimated that the Brazilian soybean crop was 80% planted as of November 14, outpacing last year’s completion rate of 68%.
Looking at contract prices:
- January 25 Soybeans closed at $9.98 1/2, increased by 11 cents, but is now down 7 1/2 cents.
- Nearby Cash was $9.46 3/4, up 11 cents.
- March 25 Soybeans closed at $10.08 3/4, up 9 1/2 cents, currently down 8 1/4 cents.
- July 25 Soybeans closed at $10.34 1/4, up 8 3/4 cents, presently down 8 1/2 cents.
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not hold (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. This article is intended solely for informational purposes. For more details, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
