Soybean Market Experiences Decline with Tariffs on the Horizon

Traders React to Economic Uncertainty

Soybeans experienced losses between 10 to 17 cents on Thursday as traders decided to take profits ahead of the month’s close. CmdtyView reported that the national front month Cash Bean price rose by 17 1/2 cents, reaching $9.80 1/4. In related markets, Soymeal futures dropped $5.20 per ton, while Soy Oil futures remained steady, with slight declines noted in nearby contracts.

Later on Thursday, President Trump announced a forthcoming 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, set to take effect this Saturday. Currently, neither country has publicly announced any countermeasures. There was also no further information on tariffs affecting China, though Trump indicated that tariffs would ultimately be placed on Chinese goods as well.

On Monday, the USDA plans to publish its monthly Fats & Oils report. Analysts project a soybean crush of 217.6 million bushels for December, with soy oil stocks estimated at 1.734 billion pounds.

According to USDA’s Export Sales data, the most recent report indicated total soybean bookings of just 438,002 metric tons for the 2024/25 cycle during the week ending January 23. This figure falls short of the expected range of 0.45 to 1.7 million metric tons, marking a three-week low and a significant 70.6% decline from the previous week; however, it still remains higher than the same week last year. Of the total, China purchased 145,300 metric tons, while Spain acquired 66,300 metric tons. There was also a small sale of 4,520 metric tons noted for the 2025/26 season, all designated for Japan.

In terms of meal sales, 410,300 metric tons were reported for the same week, positioning it at the high end of the 100,000 to 450,000 metric ton estimate range and representing the second-largest sales total for the marketing year. The Philippines accounted for 140,500 metric tons, while 106,900 metric tons were sold to unspecified destinations. Soy oil sales totaled 12,452 metric tons, aligning with the middle of the 4,000 to 20,000 metric ton estimates, and shipments reached a marketing year high of 103,600 metric tons.

Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.44, down 16 1/2 cents.

Nearby Cash was reported at $9.80 1/4, down 17 1/2 cents.

May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.59 3/4, down 15 1/2 cents.

Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.53 1/2, down 10 cents.

New Crop Cash stood at $9.88 0/1, down 10 1/2 cents.

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not hold positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are for informational purposes only. For more details, please refer to the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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