Midday Update: Soybean Market Shows Signs of Weakness
Current Trading Activity and Expectations for Exports
Soybeans encountered weaker midday trading on Wednesday, with contract prices slipping between 4 to 11 cents. According to CmdtyView, the national front month Cash Bean price increased by 5 1/4 cents, reaching $9.83 3/4. In contrast, soymeal futures fell between $3.80 and $4.30 per ton. Meanwhile, soy oil futures showed slight gains of 2 to 5 points, though deferred contracts dropped by 3 to 23 points.
As traders await Thursday’s Export Sales report, expectations for soybean exports for the 2024/25 season are projected between 300,000 and 800,000 metric tons for the week ending on January 9. There are also forecasts of 0 to 100,000 metric tons for the 2025/26 season, alongside anticipated soymeal sales in the range of 150,000 to 300,000 metric tons, and 10,000 to 50,000 metric tons for bean oil.
Recent NOPA crush data revealed that December’s total reached 206.6 million bushels, exceeding estimates by over 1 million bushels. This figure represents a 6.96% increase from November and is 5.77% higher than in December 2022, marking a record high for any month. Additionally, bean oil stocks were reported at 1.24 billion pounds, the highest level in five months; however, this is still 9.11% lower than the closing stock at the end of 2023.
In Argentina, soybean production estimates are now expected to fall between 53 to 53.5 million metric tons, which aligns with their previous estimates.
Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.42 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents.
Nearby Cash was $9.83 3/4, down 5 1/4 cents.
May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.55 1/4, decreasing by 6 cents.
Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.39 1/4, dropping 10 1/4 cents.
New Crop Cash was $9.74 1/2, down 10 1/2 cents.
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are solely for informational purposes. For more information, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
