Soybean Market Recovers as Supportive Factors Emerge
Weekly Gains and Export Dynamics Highlight Market Activity
Soybean prices saw a rally on Friday, with contracts rising between 5 and 11 cents. Despite this, January futures fell by 3.08% over the week. CmdtyView reported the national front month Cash Bean price increased by 11 cents to reach $9.46 3/4. Soymeal futures contributed positively, climbing between $1.30 and $2.60 per ton, while Soy Oil futures increased by 75 to 93 points during the session. An important factor influencing the market is China’s plan to eliminate the tax rebate on exported used cooking oil effective December 1, which may reduce imports for biodiesel feedstock purposes.
Data from NOPA released this morning indicated a record-breaking October crush, totaling 199.96 million bushels among members. This figure surpassed estimates of 196.84 million bushels and represented a 5.37% increase compared to October 2023. Additionally, stocks of bean oil were reported at 1.069 billion pounds as of October 31, which is below expectations and down by 2.8% from the previous year.
The Weekly Export Sales report showed 1.555 million metric tons of soybean sales for the 2024/25 period. This figure landed in the middle of the anticipated range of 1 to 2.2 million metric tons and marked a five-week low for bookings. Notably, China was the largest buyer at 1.18 million metric tons, followed by Egypt with 127,700 metric tons.
In terms of meal sales, 302,413 metric tons were reported for the week ending November 7, a decline from the previous week’s figures but still within the estimated range of 175,000 to 540,000 metric tons. Soybean oil sales decreased from last week’s multi-year high, landing at 16,469 metric tons, yet this still indicated an overall improvement.
The Commitment of Traders report revealed that spec funds in soybean futures and options reduced their net short positions by 15,576 contracts, bringing the total to 54,536 contracts as of Tuesday. Conversely, commercial traders increased their net short positions by 14,726 contracts, putting their total at 44,176 contracts as of November 12.
January 2025 Soybeans closed at $9.98 1/2, up 11 cents.
Nearby Cash stood at $9.46 3/4, also up 11 cents.
March 2025 Soybeans closed at $10.08 3/4, an increase of 9 1/2 cents.
July 2025 Soybeans closed at $10.34 1/4, rising by 8 3/4 cents.
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not hold positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data are presented solely for informational purposes. For further details, please refer to the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
