S&P 500 and Dow Set to Outperform Nasdaq for First Time Since 2022: Implications for Investors

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Market Overview

The Nasdaq Composite, heavily weighted in tech stocks, has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2023, with year-to-date total returns of 7.8%, 9.0%, and 9.1% respectively. This contrasts with the Nasdaq’s strong performances in previous years, where it led between 2023 and 2025 due to AI-driven market rallies. In 2022, the Nasdaq fell 32.5% amid inflationary pressures and valuation concerns.

Company Performances

Alphabet reported record revenue and a significant rise in operating margins, yet a surge in capital expenditures—primarily for AI—led to its first negative free cash flow quarter in over a decade, spurring investor concerns. The company’s capex reached $45.9 billion, raising alarms over the sustainability of its spending strategy. In contrast, Apple’s stock is surging, as its approach to AI spending appears to reassure investors, placing it around an all-time high.

Index Comparisons

As of market close on July 27, 2026, here are the performances of the major indexes:

  • Nasdaq Composite: 7.8%
  • S&P 500: 9.0%
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: 9.1%

Investor sentiment favors value-focused sectors, as reflected in the superior performance of the S&P 500 and Dow amidst skepticism over the returns on AI investments.

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