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Impacts of Brazilian Real Strength on World Sugar Prices


Sugar Prices React to Brazilian Real’s Decline

World sugar prices experienced a setback this morning after reaching 2-week highs, with May NY sugar dropping by 0.77% and May London ICE sugar by 0.06%. The decline was primarily driven by the weakening Brazilian real, which encouraged export selling from Brazil’s sugar producers as the real hit a 4.5-month low against the dollar.

Gasoline Prices and Ethanol Production Dynamics

Initially, sugar prices surged due to the strength of gasoline prices, boosting ethanol prices and potentially diverting cane crushing toward ethanol production. This shift may lessen sugar supplies globally, impacting market dynamics in the foreseeable future.

Regional Sugar Production Forecasts

Reports from various industry bodies shed light on sugar production projections across key regions. While India anticipates a rise in sugarcane and refined sugar production, Brazil’s sugar output continues to climb year-on-year, putting pressure on global sugar prices. Additionally, Thailand’s sugar production is expected to plummet to a 17-year low due to adverse weather conditions.

Influence of El Nino on Sugar Prices

The ongoing El Nino weather event is playing a pivotal role in supporting sugar prices, with its potential impact on sugar crop production in Brazil and India. Historically, El Nino-induced weather patterns have had significant repercussions on sugar prices, with past occurrences leading to soaring costs in the commodities market.

Global Sugar Market Projections

International agencies like the USDA and the ISO have released reports forecasting trends in global sugar production and consumption. Projections indicate an increase in both production and consumption levels, while global sugar ending stocks are anticipated to hit a 13-year low. The ISO revised its estimate for the 2023/24 global sugar deficit, highlighting the volatility and uncertainty in the sugar market.

Stay informed with more sugar updates from Barchart, as market dynamics continue to evolve in response to various internal and external factors.

Rich Asplund, the author, has maintained a neutral stance on the securities discussed in this article and presents the information for informational purposes only. Refer to the Barchart Disclosure Policy for detailed insights.

Please note that the opinions expressed are solely those of the author and may not align with the views of Nasdaq, Inc.