October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) fell by $0.63 (-3.46%) closing at a significant low on Friday, while October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) decreased by $9.90 (-1.89%). This decline was primarily driven by a 2-week low for the Brazilian real against the dollar, leading to increased export sales from Brazil, the world’s largest sugar producer.
As of August 25, funds have boosted long positions in London ICE white sugar to a record 70,766, the highest since data collection began in 2011. Recent forecasts signal tighter global sugar supplies, including a projected 19% drop in EU sugar production for 2026/27, which is expected to total 13.4 million metric tons. India’s monsoon rainfall is 13% below normal, adversely affecting its sugar production outlook.
Concerns around lower production figures from major sugar-producing countries, exacerbated by potential El Niño impacts on weather patterns, are bolstering sugar prices. Adjustments to global supply forecasts indicate a projected sugar deficit of 3.2 million metric tons for the 2026/27 season, while USDA reports suggest a 6.5% decrease in global sugar production to 184.854 million metric tons in the same timeframe.
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