On July 12, sugar prices fell to a seven-week low, with NY world sugar #11 down 0.06 cents (0.44%) and Aug London ICE white sugar #5 down 1.40 cents (0.31%). The decline is attributed to a stronger U.S. dollar and potential easing of sugar flow restrictions due to a proposed U.S.-Iran peace agreement.
In a significant market shift, Czarnikow revised its global sugar surplus estimate for 2026/27 from 1.4 million metric tons (MMT) to a deficit of 10,000 MT, as Brazil opts for increased ethanol production over sugar due to rising crude oil prices. Meanwhile, Thailand’s sugar exports rose by 29% year-over-year to 1.6 MMT in the first quarter of 2026, indicating ample global supply.
Concerns over future supply disruptions are mounting as Japan’s Meteorological Agency confirmed an El Niño pattern, likely resulting in reduced rainfall across major sugar producers Brazil, India, and Thailand. The NOAA projects a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño,” which could significantly impact global sugar yields.
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