As of September 7, 2023, Arabica coffee prices rose by 2.40%, increasing by $7.75 to reach $330.38 per bag, while robusta coffee prices experienced a modest increase of 0.11%, up $4 to $3,608 per ton. The rise in arabica prices is attributed to tightening near-term supplies, with ICE arabica inventories falling to a 2.5-year low of 266,204 bags.
Recent heavy rainfall in Brazil’s coffee-producing region of Minas Gerais, totaling 32.4 mm (2700% of the historical average), has raised concerns over crop disruptions, leading to a halt in the coffee harvest, which is only 58.3% complete compared to 67% during the previous year. Furthermore, despite a forecasted increase in global coffee production by 6.0% for the 2026-27 season, rising inventories of robusta, now at a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots, may exert downward pressure on prices.
Forecasts of an emerging El Niño weather pattern could also impact Brazil’s future coffee crop. The US Climate Prediction Center warns that this could lead to potential flooding and droughts, affecting production. In contrast, Vietnam’s coffee exports for the first half of 2026 are reported to have risen by 7.3% year-over-year, contributing to bearish sentiments for robusta prices.
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