Cocoa prices experienced a significant rally on December 4, 2023, with December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ26) rising by 324 points (+5.56%) and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) climbing by 226 points (+5.45%). This surge is attributed to concerns over lower quality cocoa crops from West Africa, particularly due to black pod disease affecting yields in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Ghana’s Cocoa Board recently projected a 13% decrease in the 2026/27 cocoa crop to 650,000 metric tons, down from 750,000 metric tons last year. Additionally, early assessments of the Ivory Coast crop indicate an expected production of 1.8 million metric tons for the upcoming season, an 18% drop from the previous year’s 2.2 million metric tons. These projections create bullish sentiment in the cocoa market amid rising inventories, which recently hit a two-year high of 3,384,965 bags.
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