July ICE NY cocoa prices fell by 4.99%, down 221 points, while July ICE London cocoa dropped 4.83%, down 159 points, driven by abundant current supplies. Notably, ICE cocoa inventories reached a 20.5-month high of 2,668,548 bags as of Thursday. According to the U.S. NOAA, there’s a 61% chance of El Niño conditions forming between May and July, which could adversely affect cocoa production in West Africa.
Recent cocoa crop forecasts indicate a weaker outlook due to below-average cherelle formation. The 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate has been reduced from 267,000 MT to 149,000 MT. Despite the bearish backdrop, consumer chocolate demand remains stable, with North American cocoa grindings falling 3.8% to 106,087 MT in Q1 and European cocoa grindings down 7.8% to 325,895 MT, the lowest in 17 years.
5 Stocks Our Experts Predict Could Double In the Next Year
By submitting your email, you'll also get a free pivot & flow membership. A free daily market overview. You can unsubscribe at any time.
