Cocoa prices declined on Tuesday, September 26, with September ICE NY cocoa closing down 0.62% at $1,239 and September ICE London cocoa down 0.48% at $1,428. This marks a third consecutive session of price drops, influenced by easing supply concerns from the Ivory Coast, where cocoa delivery news has emerged.
Current cocoa inventories on ICE reached a two-year high of 3,204,512 bags. In the marketing year from October 1, 2025, through July 12, 2026, cocoa shipments from the Ivory Coast increased by 21% year-on-year to 2.09 million metric tons (MMT). However, the cocoa grindings data expected later this week indicates European grindings might fall by 1.5% and North American grindings by 1%, while Asian grindings could rise by 9% year-on-year.
Weather concerns stemming from the emerging El Niño pattern, expected to be one of the strongest in over 75 years, are likely to impact cocoa yields negatively. Early crop assessments for the 2026/27 harvest predict a decrease of 18% from the previous season, with an average estimate of 1.8 MMT.
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