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Insightful Lessons on Optimism and Future Predictions from Bill Burke

In a recent episode, Bill Burke uniquely blended personal experiences with insightful, research-backed perspectives. He humorously discussed the difference between optimism and hope, using an example from his favorite sports team, the Detroit Lions—who, notably, have never made it to a Super Bowl. This not only entertained listeners but also highlighted a deeper understanding of realistic optimism. Burke elaborated on the brain’s plasticity, likening it to exercising at a gym. Just as we can strengthen our bodies, we can train our minds to foster positivity. The discussions were further enriched by anecdotes, including a memorable interaction with a Korean Uber driver in New York, exemplifying immigrant optimism.

This episode served as a powerful reminder about the importance of perspective. Drawing on his experiences at the Weather Channel, Burke noted that forecasters often receive attention only for their mistakes, while good forecasts go unnoticed. He urged listeners to remain vigilant for small acts of kindness in bustling Manhattan, emphasizing our shared humanity. This uplifting message resonates in today’s world, which craves reasons to believe in positivity. As 2024 draws to a close, we welcome Burke back to Rule Breaker Investing, praising the insights from their April podcast.

Bill Burke: It’s wonderful to be back, David! Reflecting on our previous conversation, I laugh at the mention of the Detroit Lions. Who would have thought they’d be 12-1 right now? My biography reads that I’m a lifelong optimist—something I need as a Lions fan! [laughs] It seems that might need an update.

David Gardner: You might be right, Bill! Your appearance on the Besties podcast could change the future, as has happened before.

Bill Burke: I guess this is it! Who saw this coming?

David Gardner: I have two questions for you, Bill, the first of which I’ll ask throughout this hour. Any additional reflections since our podcast on optimism in the world?

Bill Burke: Absolutely. Our conversation about the Tigers and Lions sharpened my understanding of hope versus optimism. For instance, if the Tigers are down by nine runs in the ninth inning with two outs, I might not be very optimistic, but I still have hope. Conversely, if the Lions are down by nine points with two seconds left, I’m neither optimistic nor hopeful! [laughs] That analogy has stuck with me; it even captures the magic of baseball—there’s always a chance for hope as long as there’s an out to spare.

David Gardner: That’s such a strong point, Bill. Sports analogies resonate with many of our listeners, and your insights about optimism versus hope reflect how we often connect these ideas. For those of us who enjoy sports, it adds an extra layer of appreciation to these discussions. Given that, what’s your wish or prediction for the year 2025?

Bill Burke: I’ll share a wish that could turn into an interesting prediction: I suspect 2025 might see a decline in social media and news consumption. I believe younger generations, influenced by thinkers like Jonathan Haidt, are becoming more critical of these platforms. There seems to be growing momentum for awareness around the impact of smartphones and social media on mental health. I’ve heard from many people that they feel overwhelmed by constant news, especially around elections, and they want a break. This leads me to think a drop in usage could be positive for mental well-being, which is my hopeful prediction for 2025.

David Gardner: That prediction is notable coming from you, Bill, and I agree it would be interesting to track. Do you have a specific metric in mind to gauge this shift?

Bill Burke: Not really; I’m unsure who even tracks such metrics.

David Gardner: Perhaps we can look at the performance of Meta Platforms stock for insights, but that might complicate things! [laughs] It’s valid to focus more on usage metrics.

Bill Burke: Agreed; I’d prefer to keep stocks out of this. We’ll need to think about that more, but I appreciate the idea. It’s encouraging to see discussions about reducing smartphone use in schools gaining traction, showing that change is possible.

David Gardner: It’s been a pleasure to discuss these ideas with you as 2024 ends, Bill. Let’s touch base again in 2025!

Bill Burke: I would love that, David. Always a joy to chat.

David Gardner: Indeed, my friend! On to our next topic, where Bestie number 2 goes to “Calculating Risk Foolishly, Volume 3, Kinsale vs Chewy,” released on January 24th. In this episode, I was joined by two analysts to explore my 25-point risk framework. This valuable framework teaches Rule Breaker Investors how to assign risk ratings to stocks using clear numbers, rather than vague terms. Prior to this, we had only tackled risk assessment in 2016 and 2021. It’s always a pleasure to invite Motley Fool analysts to guide us through these discussions.

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Evaluating Risk: Insights from Motley Fool’s Chief Investment Officer and Leadership Expert Rand Stagen

Understanding Risk Ratings in Investing

During a recent episode, Motley Fool Chief Investment Officer Andy Cross and analyst Emily Flippin evaluated Chewy and Kinsel stocks through a 25-point risk rating framework. Unlike vague descriptions like “medium risk,” listeners received clear numerical ratings for these popular stocks among Motley Fool members. Before we dive into details, we will be hearing more from Andy later in the show, with Emily joining next week.

The episode highlighted three significant aspects. First, the episode provided a concrete method for assessing risk. By applying a numerical risk rating to Chewy and Kinsel, the evaluation turned an abstract idea into a defined concept. Chewy is well-known among consumers, while Kinsel is intriguing yet not widely recognized.

Secondly, the discussion showcased the adaptability of the same risk evaluation system across different companies. While both Chewy and Kinsel were analyzed, utilizing the same framework highlighted their differences and similarities in risk exposure.

Lastly, January 24th was an empowering week for listeners. By the episode’s end, everyone understood how to assess risk and why it’s essential in investing. The goal was to transform a theoretical concept into a practical skill: determining and estimating risk. It’s crucial to understand that in the stock market, risk concerns the potential loss of a significant portion of your investment over time. Many associate risk with volatility or a stock’s beta, but a more relevant concern is the possibility of substantial financial loss over the long haul, which can hinder a portfolio’s performance.

The Importance of Long-Term Leadership

Our third highlight occurred in mid-September when Rand Stagen joined me to discuss long-term leadership, business practices, and life altogether. As the founder of the Stagen Leadership Academy, Rand emphasized that meaningful transformation in business and investing requires patience and ongoing effort. His philosophy mirrors the principles of successful investing, focusing on compounding returns over decades rather than seeking quick solutions.

Leaders, according to Rand, should blend purpose with profit. Compassion and authenticity should not be viewed as optional; instead, they are essential strategies that improve both performance and workplace morale.

Reflecting on Leadership and Time

One of my favorite exchanges during our conversation was when Rand discussed the desire for quick fixes in business. Leaders often approach Rand for immediate solutions, hoping to achieve substantial trust-building within a two-day workshop. Rand’s response revealed the unrealistic nature of such expectations: “Seriously? Do that in two days?”

When I asked Rand for his reflections on our podcast and leadership in general, he elaborated on how principles of compounding apply across not only business and investing but also in life. He mentioned the ancient Greeks, who recognized two types of time: chronological, which encapsulates our daily rush, and ‘kairos,’ or divine time, which speaks to a deeper, timeless existence.

This timelessness ties into this year’s Besties, focusing on meaningful moments. As Rand shared a quote from the late John C. Bogle, founder of Vanguard—“Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy”—it resonated deeply. Rand explained that impulse represents the tendency to react to market fluctuations driven by fear, leading to poor investing choices like selling low and buying high.

The Power of Patience in Investing

Rand’s insights underline the significance of patience in both investing and life. Acknowledging the time it takes to reap the rewards reinforces the need to avoid impulse decisions. Fostering a long-term perspective can help investors navigate the market’s ups and downs more effectively, enhancing overall financial health.

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Reflecting on the Legacy of Jack Bogle and Future Perspectives for Investment

Throughout this podcast, we honor Jack Bogle’s contributions to investing. It was exactly this week in December 2016 that we titled a podcast “Love Letter to Jack Bogle.” After hearing about it, Jack reached out, leading to an insightful interview just one week later on December 21, 2016. Anyone can look it up: Why We Invest plus Jack Bogle interviews. This engaging response is something I will forever treasure.

Rand Stagen: It was indeed a remarkable experience. Your mention of a love letter reminds me of a quote from Mother Teresa: “I am a little pencil in the hand of a writing God sending a love letter to the world.” As we reflect on our discussions from September and dive into current topics, we see that investing—whether in finance, business, or family—often transcends rational thought. Navigating this journey demands faith, trust, and sometimes, the courage to let go. How can we balance our impulses with the need to patiently embrace the long-term perspective?

David Gardner: That resonates strongly. This theme of “losing to win,” which aligns with surrendering to gain, is something I often explore in this podcast. Rand, I appreciate our long-standing friendship. By historical averages, the stock market typically doubles every seven years. Having known you for approximately 14 years, it’s fascinating to think that our appreciation for each other has increased fourfold, assuming a 9-10% annual return. I eagerly anticipate the next seven years and even beyond; perhaps our growth will exceed that average.

Rand Stagen: I like to think we are outpacing trends. We shared some memorable moments at the Conscious Capitalism conference. After one night, I pondered why I didn’t feel rested. Then it hit me—I had been engrossed in conversation with you past midnight, at the fire pit, with a bit too much wine! Perhaps spending too much time together could hinder our returns. I believe our current balance in our friendship is ideal.

David Gardner: You put that beautifully. I do enjoy late-night discussions by the fire pit, and I’m grateful you were part of it. As a parting thought, as we look toward the upcoming year, what is your wish or prediction for 2025?

Rand Stagen: I’m inclined to share a wish. Given that we’ve moved past the recent presidential election and despite all the dire predictions, our country remains resilient. My hope for Americans—and indeed for people worldwide facing hyperpolarization—is that we learn to recognize the best in each other, especially those with differing viewpoints. Instead of amplifying each other’s worst aspects, let’s strive to see our shared humanity in our discussions. I value healthy debate and believe it helps us grow, but I wish for greater empathy towards our opponents in the coming years.

David Gardner: That’s a poignant wish. I agree that wishing often sparks action toward a positive future. Your thoughts encourage us to envision a promising 2025. As for the stock market’s performance, it has been a dynamic couple of years—2023 and 2024 included—but I maintain a hopeful outlook for continual growth. Thank you for your insights and for our podcast discussion back in September. I look forward to our ongoing conversations in 2025.

Rand Stagen: I have to break a rule and add one last prediction! I foresee receiving an invitation to make another appearance on the Rule Breaker podcast in 2025. I predict it will be such an outstanding episode that I’ll be in contention for a “bestie” status once again! Again, it all starts with dreaming and aiming high, making it part of my goals for next year.

David Gardner: I’m honored to see your dedication to that goal. You bring something unique to this podcast, Rand. Wishing you happy holidays, my friend, and see you in 2025.

Rand Stagen: Happy holidays!

David Gardner: Our fourth bestie showcased the benefits of thinking outside the box, especially when exploring art as an investment. Is art a valid asset? Notably, Tonya Turner Carroll emphasized that “the artist is only half of the experience; the collector completes it.” Tonya and her partner, Michael Carroll, both seasoned gallery owners and advisers, recently shared strategies for elevating art investment. Engaging with knowledgeable dealers, grasping the cultural and historical context of the artist, and seeking iconic themes can transform a simple acquisition into a meaningful investment.

Tonight, we welcome the Carolls back. Tonya and Michael, congratulations on your “bestie” recognition. While there’s no physical award yet, if we ever commission a trophy, you both will be the first on my list.

Michael Carroll: Wait, who?

David Gardner: You two!

Tonya Turner Carroll: We’re thrilled to be here.

Michael Carroll: Excited to join you.

Tonya Turner Carroll: Truly honored to be part of the besties.

David Gardner: Thank you both. Where are you situated right now?

Tonya Turner Carroll: We are enjoying a collector’s stunning balcony in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. We just wrapped up Art Basel Miami week, exhibiting for an entire week. As we speak, we are installing a painting in a new client’s home, someone we met at the art fair.

Michael Carroll: They even made us lunch! The view is fantastic after spending a week under a big tent.

David Gardner: I wish this were a video podcast; you’re perched high with a breathtaking view of Fort Lauderdale. It sounds like you’ve had an exciting week—congratulations on a successful Art Basel. Now, Tonya and Michael, I’ll ask you the same two questions I’m posing to all guest stars returning for our besties tonight…

Art Insights: Navigating the Evolving World of Collecting and Investment

Exploring the Importance of Strategic Appraisal and Legacy Planning in Art Collecting

Tonya Turner Carroll: Yes, actually. I’m glad you asked. Doing the podcast with you really made us dig deeper into our own practice as art workers. As a result, we’ve worked to get licensing on our own team to provide additional services not fully discussed during our earlier podcast.

David Gardner: Tell me more.

Tonya Turner Carroll: In any team, having a trusted art advisor is crucial for making personal choices. However, it’s equally important to have someone who bridges the gap for individuals already invested in art. For years, we’ve focused on helping clients understand what to do with their art when considering sales, donations, or estate planning. Recently, we delved into professional appraisal certification, allowing us to track art values annually. This means we can highlight trends and indicate if an artist’s work is gaining or losing value.

David Gardner: It’s a lot like tracking stocks.

Tonya Turner Carroll: That’s a good comparison. As the art historian in our organization, I advocate for artists like Charles White, whose value fluctuates. You should be aware of upcoming museum exhibitions or significant auctions to gauge an artist’s market potential. I would add that aside from having an art advisor, engaging with an active appraiser is vital for any collector.

David Gardner: It’s great to see this professional growth. You’re expanding your offerings and helping investors understand when to buy or sell.

Michael Carroll: I agree with Tonya on this shift. The importance of deaccessioning—removing works from collections—is becoming more evident. We often refer to anyone who buys art as a “collector,” but many are facing challenges. Lately, headlines show that heirs often do not want inherited collections. With changes in estate tax exemptions looming, it’s crucial for collectors to strategize. Cultural objects hold different value compared to cash.

Michael Carroll: A single collection will not generally go to just one museum. When museums accept pieces, they commit to preserving them indefinitely. Donors believe they’re making altruistic gifts, yet this commitment is substantial. It can take years for a museum to process a single object. As these tax exemption discussions continue, it’s unlikely they will shift down to settings like $13 or $14 million, so planning is essential.

Michael Carroll: Additionally, collectors must communicate with their families about what they want. If heirs don’t appreciate the stories behind the artwork, inherited collections face significant challenges—and they risk being sold off quickly. We’re expanding our services to assist in advising on deaccessioning, as demand will likely increase for skilled guidance in this area.

David Gardner: It’s fascinating to consider the formal procedures behind museum deaccessioning. This ties into broader estate planning and legacy discussion. What will your legacy be? Thank you both for enlightening us further. For a final thought, Michael, what is your prediction for 2025?

Michael Carroll: I hope artwork becomes more innovative again. Dealers have seemed hesitant to explore new ideas over the past year. Historically, political cycles tend to slow down the art market, pushing people towards established artists—about 40% of purchases nowadays. My wish is for fresh voices and perspectives from younger artists to re-emerge in visibility as we move forward.

David Gardner: Thank you, Michael. Tonya, what’s your wish or prediction for the upcoming year?

Tonya Turner Carroll: I hope for a greater focus on representation in collections. Currently, only 1.2% of artists in museum collections are people of color, and just 11% are women artists. I wish collectors would step up to fund acquisitions for underrepresented artists. My prediction is that meaningful connections between potential investors and curators are vital, and those meetings will drive important changes in who gets represented in museums.

Michael Carroll: Understanding how to donate art remains unclear for many; it’s important to discuss this further in the future.

David Gardner: Thank you, Tonya Turner Carroll and Michael Carroll, for our prior insightful podcast. It serves as an invaluable resource for anyone interested in art investment. I appreciate your engagement as we strive to create a better future for art enthusiasts. Thank you again for joining us today.

Tonya Turner Carroll: Thank you.

Michael Carroll: Thank you, David.

David Gardner: I had long anticipated this moment since last year. As I introduced in the previous discussion, on July 10th, 2024, we’re set for Palooza Ultima 35.

Tracking Success: Insights from Palooza Ultima Stock Samplers

This review of the Palooza Ultima podcast stems from a unique experiment that spanned over six years. During this time, I created 30 distinct stock samplers, each featuring five different stocks, all tracked for accountability and educational purposes. Some themes were whimsical, like selecting stocks that start with the letter “M,” while others were more serious, such as picking five stocks related to the coronavirus.

The aim was to not only share stock recommendations but also to provide a comprehensive lesson in effective long-term investment strategies. This podcast episode serves as a grand finale, offering a detailed retrospective on all 150 stock picks and their journeys over several years. Compared to the average S&P 500 gain of 40% during standard three-year periods, these samplers boasted an average return of 76%, showcasing a remarkable outperformance. Essentially, 150 stocks yielded a 76% return while competing against the S&P’s 40% during the same timeframe. In a financial world where advice often discourages individual stock picking, labeling it as mere luck, I’ve persistently challenged this belief throughout my life.

From my time as a contributor to the Motley Fool Stock Advisor and Motley Fool Rule Breakers to launching my original full portfolio on AOL in August 1994, I have consistently outperformed market averages. In every context, whether tracking on Motley Fool CAPS or other platforms, I’ve seen success alongside those who engaged with my strategies, including those participating in these 35 stock samplers.

For listeners tuning into this podcast—many of whom may not be familiar with The Motley Fool or my investing record—this platform provided a very public way to engage in investing. Over the span of six years, I created 35 stock samplers, selecting small groups of stocks roughly every 10 weeks, tracking their performance extensively. This project has been a source of enjoyment, enabling me to evaluate these samplers over their designated three-year performance periods.

In a recent episode, I unveiled more compelling long-term results. Starting from initial picks in 2015 to July this year, the combined performance of those 150 stocks swelled to an impressive 168% return, outpacing the market’s 102%. This illustrates how patience and time can significantly enhance investment outcomes.

Through various financial climates, these stocks—ranging from major underperformers like Peloton to substantial winners like Tesla and Nvidia—have consistently outstripped market averages. An update recorded on December 10th revealed that these 150 stocks had surged to an average return of 239%, compared to the S&P 500’s return of 119%. This achievement not only represents a doubling of the S&P returns but also reinforces the idea that sometimes, you can experience losses while still achieving overall success.

A key lesson from this journey emphasizes that true wealth building isn’t about a perfect track record but about holding onto top-performing investments. In an era marked by short-term anxieties, these samplers reaffirm that a long-term perspective, alongside faith in innovation and growth, fosters significant rewards. This retrospective caps off a six-year journey that has now grown into a nine-year saga.

Now, turning to Bestie number 6, released on May Day, we revisited the world of dividend investing. This important topic often fades into the background amid the excitement of high-flying Rule Breaker stocks, yet it remains critical for wealth building and stability. I was joined by long-time Fool advisors Matt Argersinger and Buck Hartzell to discuss why dividends have become less commonplace in recent years, exploring factors like low interest rates and corporate buyback trends.

We highlighted the utility of dividends as a financial safety net during downturns, as well as their role in promoting discipline among companies. Moreover, we clarified some misconceptions, pointing out that dividends don’t necessarily indicate a company’s growth is at an end, and not all buybacks effectively return value to shareholders.

I particularly enjoyed this podcast because of the caliber of my guests. Matt and Buck have been invaluable to Motley Fool members for years. Their insights provided a strong foundation for the episode, much like my discussion about investing in art earlier with the Carolls.

Matt Argersinger: It’s great to be here, David. Thank you.

Buck Hartzell: Yeah, thank you. It’s great to be back, David.

David Gardner: Let’s get into details. Matt, I want to hear your thoughts on the companies we discussed during our last podcast. What reflections or new insights do you have since we spoke in May?

Matt Argersinger: David, I have to say the three companies I shared at the end of that last podcast have truly had an interesting few seasons. The first one, RPM International (ticker RPM), just reached a new all-time high, which is exciting. Most notably, it raised its dividend by 11% in October, marking the 51st consecutive increase.

David Gardner: That’s fantastic news!

Matt Argersinger: Absolutely, and it’s incredible that the stock is performing at an all-time high. The second company we discussed was Hershey, which was trading around $190 at the time and remains around that level now. Cocoa prices have played a role in this stability.

Mondelez Targets Hershey Again as Starbucks Welcomes New CEO

Following a strategic shift, Mondelez plans to re-attempt acquiring Hershey, while Starbucks benefits from leadership changes this quarter.

Mondelez Eyes Hershey for a Second Time

After setting record highs in May, Mondelez has reportedly renewed its interest in acquiring Hershey, as indicated by Bloomberg. The food company had a previous attempt in 2016, which was turned down. Acquiring Hershey poses challenges, particularly due to its unique ownership structure. The complexities surrounding this potential deal echo discussions from earlier broadcasts.

Leadership Change at Starbucks

Meanwhile, Starbucks experienced a significant leadership change this summer with Brian Nichols, the former CEO of Chipotle, stepping in as the new CEO effective October. Following this announcement, Starbucks stock surged approximately 30%. Nichols is implementing a “back to Starbucks” strategy aimed at enhancing customer experience and boosting order throughput—both of which present major challenges, but given Nichols’ experience, many investors are optimistic about his leadership.

Stock Updates from Buck Hartzell

Buck Hartzell shifted the focus to three Canadian companies he has been following, noting that even without notable shifts in business, they present intriguing stock opportunities. His chosen stocks include MTY Food Group, which owns brands like Cold Stone Creamery and TCBY. Despite a recent stock dip of about 3.7%, MTY has raised its dividend by 9.1%, outpacing inflation. They’ve also been managing debt from multiple acquisitions, demonstrating solid recurring cash flows and capital allocation strategies.

Potential of Enghouse and Brookfield Infrastructure

Enghouse has shown stability, with flat stock performance but an impressive total dividend increase of 18.5% over the past year. The company, holding a robust cash balance of $258 million, has achieved consistent double-digit revenue growth for four consecutive quarters. Buck also highlighted Brookfield Infrastructure, which has seen its stock rise about 40% since May, combined with a 5.8% dividend increase. This growth reflects the current shifting preference towards higher-yielding dividend stocks as interest rates decline.

Final Thoughts and Predictions

As the discussion wrapped up, David Gardner turned to Buck for reflections on future trends. Buck shared insights from his recent trip to Patagonia, emphasizing the need for Americans to act as positive examples globally, through both individual and collective efforts. Meanwhile, Matt cautioned investors about the stock market’s strong performance over the past two years and the importance of tempering expectations moving into 2025. With a nearly 30% rise in the S&P 500 this year and a 21% increase in 2023, the historical trends suggest a more cautious approach may be warranted as the market heads into a potentially challenging year.

Market Outlook: Navigating Potential Volatility Amidst Opportunities

The landscape for investors is shifting as the probability of a down year increases heading into 2024. This environment also suggests the potential for unique investment opportunities. Investors should prepare for the possibility of fluctuations in 2025 while remaining on the lookout for promising prospects.

David Gardner: It’s an interesting perspective. I, for one, believe that the market will rise next year, although I admit I make this call annually and am accurate only about two-thirds of the time. Reflecting on the past few years, it’s clear that while this year and last have been positive, the previous year was rather dismal. Long-term players, like Buck, Matt, and many others in our community, find that staying invested through thick and thin often yields better results. Instead of frequently jumping in and out of the market, focusing on buying, holding, and reinvesting dividends can simplify the investment process. Thanks, Buck Hartzell and Matt Argersinger, for participating in our recent discussions and for your insights.

Matt Argersinger: Thank you, David.

David Gardner: Happy holidays.

Buck Hartzell: Thank you.

David Gardner: Coming in at Bestie Number 7, we had a remarkable discussion on October 9th with Elaine Hungenberg about XPRIZE and its impact on innovation. Elaine highlighted how a single challenge, such as the original $10 million prize for private space travel, can stimulate entire new industries—a testament to the potential of encouraging bold ideas. One of her most notable projects, aimed at instant wildfire suppression, showcases the power of innovative thinking to address urgent global challenges. Her commitment to moonshot thinking reminds us that ambition can yield extraordinary results. A listener shared their enthusiasm, stating their enjoyment of the podcast episode with Elaine and how inspiring she was. Elaine, we’re thrilled to have you back on the show.

Elaine Hungenberg: Thank you, David.

David Gardner: To start, do you have any reflections on our last conversation or broader observations about our current world?

Elaine Hungenberg: Absolutely, David. It was an exhilarating experience. During our discussion, we emphasized innovation and the critical role of challenging prevailing ideas. I believe that contrarian thinking can lead to meaningful breakthroughs, but it’s equally crucial to address the ethical implications of such innovations. Recently, I have been captivated by the surprising solutions that emerge when we uplift underrepresented voices in problem-solving. This principle is a cornerstone for the Motley Fool Foundation, where we prioritize collaboration to raise everyone’s capabilities. Ultimately, consumers and investors hold significant influence in this evolving landscape.

David Gardner: Your globe-trotting adventures allow you to connect with remarkable individuals, and I encourage anyone who missed our podcast to listen. Furthermore, your insights resonate deeply with the essence of Rule Breaker Investing, which celebrates those who think differently—like Steve Jobs encouraged. Being an underdog might feel risky, but when successful, it can lead to substantial rewards.

Elaine Hungenberg: I appreciate that sentiment, David. And yes, I came prepared for your final question—what’s your wish or prediction for the coming year?

Elaine Hungenberg: My wish for 2025 is to see the world’s biggest challenges framed not as zero-sum struggles but as opportunities for collective growth. Tackling issues like climate change, poverty, and health should be viewed as investments, not sacrifices. When we choose to invest in solutions, we ultimately benefit.

David Gardner: It echoes the insightful words of Harry Truman: optimists create opportunities from difficulties. Let’s aim to focus on those possibilities. I value your friendship, Elaine, and thank you for your valuable contributions to our podcast, both in October and today.

Elaine Hungenberg: Thank you, David, for having me.

David Gardner: Wrapping up our segment, I introduced an interesting twist in the Bestie Number 8 episode: I invited ChatGPT to pose thought-provoking investing questions, allowing AI to interview me for a change. This innovative approach combined modern technology with timeless investment wisdom, showcasing how emerging tools can enhance our understanding of the market. The episode exemplifies our commitment to pushing boundaries and embracing new forms of thinking in Rule Breaker Investing.

Insights from the Investing Podcast: AI, Market Dynamics, and Predictions for 2025

In a recent episode of Rule Breaker Investing, the discussion revolved around how human-centered AI can enhance our creative judgment in investing. Concepts such as allowing top performers to shine while acknowledging losses are part of the learning process were highlighted. This episode also emphasized the importance of building a portfolio that aligns with our envisioned future. Moreover, it serves as a timely reminder about our adaptation to the evolving landscape of technology while retaining our foundational values. Ultimately, although technology progresses, core investing principles remain steadfast.

One poignant remark from Joanna, a guest on the show, encapsulated the episode’s essence: “I want AI to do my laundry and dishes so that I can do art and writing, not the other way around.” If you missed the episode, I encourage you to listen for more insights. Following that conversation, a new episodic series was introduced in June, with Volume 2 released on November 13, featuring baseball-themed challenges posed by ChatGPT.

The highlight of our recent episodes was our first-ever Market Cap Game Show World Championships, featuring long-time Motley Fool advisors Andy Cross and Bill Mann. They faced off in a high-stakes contest testing their financial knowledge. The excitement of the competition kept listeners on the edge of their seats, culminating in a tense final showdown where each point from either competitor felt like a victory for the audience.

As they navigated through market cap challenges such as obscure companies and giants alike, the spirit of camaraderie was evident. Reflecting back, Andy noted, “It was so much fun competing against Bill. In that moment, the market was up about 17%, and our discussed stocks had grown about 8 or 9%.”

However, not all moments were successes; Andy candidly recalled a significant miscalculation with Synaptics, where he predicted a market cap of $80-$100 billion, while Synaptics is now valued under $10 billion. Despite this setback, he humorously observed how he managed to secure the championship trophy.

Conversing with Bill on his feelings about the close competition, he likened it to iconic sports moments, illustrating his profound disappointment. “It was the closest of margins, yet we thought we were discussing an entirely different company,” Bill explained, reflecting on the competition’s intensity.

As the conversation turned to predictions for 2025, Bill expressed a simple desire: “I just want to win.” He elaborated on the market’s dynamics, referring to the dominance of the “magnificent seven” tech companies. He predicted that while the technological edge of the U.S. is robust, there may not be emerging companies outside the U.S. capable of challenging these powerful entities.

David agreed, emphasizing how investing in one high-performing stock among those top companies could lead to significant portfolio success. He expressed hope for the continued sharing of knowledge and opportunities within America and around the world, encouraging a spirit of conscious capitalism.

Turning to Andy, he echoed Bill’s sentiments and expressed excitement for upcoming publications related to influential figures like Jensen Huang of NVIDIA. This reflects a broader curiosity about technological advancements and their impact on investment strategies for the future.

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NVIDIA’s Anticipated AI Expansion Sparks Investor Interest

As companies increasingly adopt AI technology, the financial landscape could change significantly. This ongoing shift is drawing attention and excitement from investors across various sectors, particularly as the earnings outlook for the S&P 500 hovers around 13%. Comparatively, earnings growth has been nearly flat this year, emphasizing the need for innovation to drive margin expansion.

Prospects for the Future

Looking ahead, the potential impact of AI and automation is expected to be substantial. Companies across different industries are starting to highlight how these technologies are enhancing their operations, making it easier to adapt to evolving market demands.

Reflections on Berkshire Hathaway

During a recent conversation, the focus turned to Berkshire Hathaway. One notable participant expressed enthusiasm about attending the annual meeting for the first time, especially as Warren Buffett approaches the age of 94. Making the trip to Omaha is on the agenda this year, and expectations are high for this monumental gathering.

A Road Trip to Remember

A light-hearted discussion among the group gathered momentum for a potential road trip to see Warren Buffett. The idea of creating a documentary about the adventure was enticing, showcasing the friendships that have been formed over the years while exploring investment opportunities.

A Look Back at Community Connections

Reflecting on the year’s podcasts, David Gardner reminisced about exciting interviews, particularly one with neuroscientist David Eagleman. This conversation proved significant by leading to memorable discussions around investment strategies, highlighting the importance of shared experiences in the investment community.

Listeners Share Insights

During the end of year wrap-up, contributions from long-time listeners showed how interconnected the community has become. They emphasized that investing transcends mere financial returns; it’s about building relationships and supporting one another in a journey filled with shared wisdom.

Individual Contributions

Each contributor shared their reflections and predictions for 2025. Jason Moore pointed out the joy found in shared experiences and predicted advancements in AI-driven animal communication tools, humorously alluding to the possible voices of pets.

Next, Dave Geck reflected on personal fitness goals and the importance of continuous improvement at any age, while also expressing hope for more engaging content related to stock reviews in future podcasts.

Jim shared his thoughts on the group’s ability to connect beyond political labels, wishing for a focus on respect and character moving forward into 2025 and beyond. This sentiment reinforced the idea that common ground exists, allowing for meaningful discussions and uplifting interactions.

A New Era Ahead

As all contributors highlighted, the journey through investing is about personal growth, community support, and shared experiences. The exchange of ideas and reflections set the stage for continued progress and optimism in the upcoming year.

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Community Reflections: Key Insights from Rule Breaker Investing’s 2024 Celebration

The recent gathering of contributors from the Rule Breaker Investing podcast celebrated both achievements and the spirit of community. As we look ahead, members shared personal reflections and predictions for 2025.

A Strong Sense of Togetherness

Jason Trice expresses his gratitude for the feeling of community he found amongst participants. He remarks how quickly connections formed, comparing it to chatting with lifelong friends—highlighting how the bonds we share are more powerful than differences. Trice hopes that in 2025, everyone will find supportive communities, emphasizing that companies should focus on creating these connections, as many people are eager for a sense of belonging.

Personal Growth and New Experiences

Adam Nelson reflects on the rapid changes in his life over the past year, stating, “If you feel stuck, keep moving, and you won’t be for long.” He has secured a dream job, traveled extensively—including a marathon in Berlin—and added a puppy to his family, showcasing life’s ebb and flow. His key takeaway? Surround yourself with quality people, a sentiment echoed throughout the gathering. Looking towards 2025, Nelson anticipates more change and wishes his community a happy holiday season.

Investing in Personal Development

Mike McMahon, known as “Shop Guy” on Twitter X, shares that his best investment this year has been the development of habits emphasizing relationships and lifelong learning. Having walked over 1,600 miles, read more than 20 books, and dedicated numerous hours to podcasts, he feels smarter and happier entering his seventh decade. With strong expectations for 2025, McMahon is eager to leverage technology, particularly AI, to manage the knowledge he has accumulated.

Reflections and Community Bonds

Jason Newman, a long-time member of this circle, reminisces about his first meeting with the team in the 1990s. He values the friendships developed throughout the years, noting that they are a testament to the community spirit fostered by the podcast. As he approaches 50, Newman underscores the transformative power of artificial intelligence, stating it’s a trend that he is keen to observe in the coming years.

Parting Thoughts and Acknowledgments

The reflections shared by Jasons, Adams, and Mikes underscore the supportive atmosphere cultivated by Rule Breaker Investing. A big thank you goes to producer Dez Jones, and all the guests who contributed to a successful year for the podcast. The sense of community and shared insights is a treasure that enriches the experience for both participants and listeners alike.

As another year wraps up, gratitude is extended to all the listeners and contributors who helped make 2024 a stellar journey. May the lessons learned and friendships formed continue to inspire growth and success in the year ahead.

Randi Zuckerberg, a former Facebook executive, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Several contributors hold positions in various companies, including Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends these stocks along with a disclosure policy detailing investment interests.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.