June Nymex natural gas closed down $0.067 (2.30%) on Tuesday after peaking at a six-week high, primarily influenced by a revised forecast from the EIA that boosted US dry natural gas production estimates for 2026 to 110.61 bcf/day, up from 109.60 bcf/day. The decrease in prices follows increased production forecasts despite rising demand due to warmer weather across the western US.
As of April 24, US natural gas inventories were reported to be 7.7% above their five-year seasonal average, which further supports the decline in prices. Current US lower-48 dry gas production sits at 108.6 bcf/day, a 1.8% year-on-year increase, while gas demand reached 68 bcf/day, up 10.0% year-on-year. Additionally, estimated LNG net flows to US export terminals were 17.5 bcf/day, reflecting a 0.8% weekly increase.
Despite these pressures, medium-term support for natural gas prices is anticipated due to tighter global LNG supplies influenced by damage at Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, which accounts for 20% of global LNG supply and will take years to repair.
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