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Valuing the Potential of Artificial General Intelligence: A Financial Perspective

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AI and Investing: Key Insights from This Week’s Motley Fool Podcast

In this podcast, Motley Fool host Dylan Lewis and analysts Asit Sharma and Bill Mann discuss:

  • Microsoft and OpenAI’s unusual take on artificial general intelligence (AGI).
  • Meta‘s initiative to develop AI influencers for Instagram.
  • A look back at a notable aspect of President Jimmy Carter’s legacy and the implications of the surgeon general’s alcohol consumption warning.
  • Cautious thoughts on fintech and investment prospects in the U.S. for 2025.
  • Two stocks gaining attention: Darden Restaurants and Imax.

Motley Fool CEO Tom Gardner shares his investing strategy for 2025, highlighting what his preferred market indicator suggests about current conditions and his thoughts on Bitcoin nearing the $100,000 mark. To join the conversation, sign up for Motley Fool Stock Advisor at Fool.com/signup.

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For more episodes of all The Motley Fool’s podcasts, visit our podcast center. If you are new to investing, check out our beginner’s guide. When you’re ready to invest, you can explore our top 10 stocks to buy. A full transcript follows this video.

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This video was recorded on January 3, 2025.

Dylan Lewis: So, what’s AGI? We’ll know it when we see profit. Welcome to this week’s episode of the Motley Fool Money radio show.

Everyone needs money, and that’s why it’s called money.

Welcome to the Motley Fool Money Radio Show. I’m Dylan Lewis, and with me are senior analysts Bill Mann and Asit Sharma. It’s great to have you both here as we kick off 2025.

Bill Mann: I’m doing well, Dylan. Happy New Year!

Dylan Lewis: Happy New Year to you both! I feel great and a bit re-energized after the holidays. AI was a big topic last year, and it remains critical this year.

Two intriguing stories are already on the table. Microsoft and OpenAI, known for their partnership, have made headlines. Recent reports shed light on their agreement, particularly their take on the goal of artificial general intelligence, or AGI. Their unorthodox definition suggests it hinges on hitting $100 billion in profits—a surprising benchmark.

Bill Mann: In the classic movie “Terminator,” SkyNet was said to become self-aware on August 29, 2024. That’s a thrilling narrative. However, the partnership’s new criteria seem rather mundane. They have to consider their investment in a non-profit, shedding light on how the definitions change when motives differ.

Dylan Lewis: Asit, much of AI’s discussion has been philosophical, focusing on technical challenges. What does it mean for money to be the key metric?

Asit Sharma: It’s a practical approach. Microsoft’s target of $100 billion in annual profits indicates that they see AGI as essential to achieving that financial goal. Very few companies, apart from giants like Saudi Aramco and Berkshire Hathaway, excel at that scale. Yet, this could also hint at a field where Microsoft is attempting to address its substantial losses and facing a pivotal moment.

Bill Mann: Indeed, $100 billion feels like a huge ambition. OpenAI describes AGI as a system that surpasses most human work economically, which raises quite a few questions about its implications.

Dylan Lewis: Let’s not forget: the $100 billion is a pivotal rather than arbitrary target. The original terms of Microsoft and OpenAI’s collaboration indicated that reaching AGI would result in OpenAI’s emancipation from Microsoft. For Microsoft investors, Bill, would you prefer to see AGI developed quickly, or maintain the current partnership for a while longer?

Bill Mann: Given Microsoft’s valuation of $3 trillion, these profit figures may appear minor. Yet, with a $13 billion investment in OpenAI, they are eager for returns. Those anticipated losses of $44 billion over a span of five years could be unsettling for investors.

Dylan Lewis: It’s quite a concerning figure.[laughs]

Bill Mann: Certainly a lot of red ink![laughs]

Dylan Lewis: That’s the hope of every investor. As we stick with the trend of innovation, Meta is set to roll out a range of AI tools for users, expanding its AI studio effort, aimed at enhancing user engagement on the platform.

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Meta’s AI Influencers: The Future of Social Media Engagement Starts Now

Will AI Be the Next Big Thing on Meta?

Meta’s Vice President of generative AI recently shared insights with the Financial Times about the company’s plans for AI influencers. These digital figures could exist on Meta platforms just like human accounts. Asit, did you think we would reach this point so quickly?

Asit Sharma: No, but [laughs] I’ve always been amazed at how fast social platforms can grow. Introducing AI into this mix creates even more rapid changes. Meta is tapping into a fundamental human desire to share personal stories. The idea of having AI avatars or influencers makes sense economically for them, as each user interaction requires substantial computing power.

If they can attract hundreds of millions of young users to this AI system, it will generate significant revenue for Meta. They are motivated to promote this trend, although we must consider its societal impact.

Dylan Lewis: They seem to be positioning themselves ahead of the curve, while also recognizing existing trends. Some agencies have already developed AI influencers who are making money from fans and securing sponsorships. Bill, as an advertiser, are you ready to dive into the AI influencer economy?

Bill Mann: Yes, it’s a must-do. I think about Bill Gates’ assertion in the ’70s that personal computers wouldn’t be necessary in every home. Our current mindset on social media is constantly evolving. The introduction of AI influencers will redefine the space, leading to experiences we can’t fully envision yet—even for creators and advertisers. However, they must engage with this emerging landscape.

Dylan Lewis: Asit, you previously expressed concerns regarding this AI trend. What are your thoughts on the potential business model? At the end of the day, the goal for advertisers and social media companies is to garner attention, correct?

Asit Sharma: Absolutely, that’s how advertising works. But let’s take a less cynical view for a moment. There will likely be a backlash after the initial excitement where consumers crave more authentic, human connections. This shift in preference could push advertisers to seek a balance, combining human and AI elements. Picture it: a human influencer driving a car with their AI companion in the passenger seat. Let’s steer back to my earlier cynical view before I dig myself a deeper hole. [laughs]

Bill Mann: It certainly feels like AI is gearing up for a significant presence in 2025.

Dylan Lewis: You began today’s show with talk of SkyNet, Bill. We’ll set that aside for now and just focus on more Motley Fool insights. After the break, we’ll celebrate President Jimmy Carter and his impact on one of my favorite industries. Stay with us for more on Motley Fool Money.

Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. I’m Dylan Lewis here with Bill Mann and Asit Sharma. Just before the end of 2024, we lost President Jimmy Carter, a dedicated public servant and humanitarian. Bill, you have a unique aspect of his legacy to discuss this week.

Bill Mann: It’s interesting because Jimmy Carter, a lifelong teetotaler, still played a crucial role in transforming the American craft beer industry. Following Prohibition’s repeal, there were no regulations around home brewing until 1978. That’s when Carter signed a law lifting the ban on home brewing, paving the way for the craft beer boom that followed, as Jim Cook from Boston Beer can attest.

Dylan Lewis: To add some context, when Carter signed that law, there were only 90 breweries in the U.S.—the lowest number on record apart from the Prohibition era. What a stark contrast to today’s vibrant craft beer scene!

Bill Mann: [laughs] Officially, yes!

Dylan Lewis: Fast forward to 1998, and that number jumped to 1,500. Today, the U.S. boasts about 10,000 breweries. This illustrates how regulations and market opportunities can drive innovation. Reducing barriers allows new players to offer unique products to consumers.

Asit Sharma: Indeed. Regulations can sometimes stifle creativity, but this example serves to highlight how lifting restrictions can foster innovation. That said, let’s pivot to a quirky piece of this story. The infamous Billy Beer, a product of President Carter’s brother, lasted a mere year on the market. It’s an interesting footnote in brewing history.

This beer was produced by a Midwest brewery and may have influenced Jimmy Carter’s support for the home brewing law, thanks to conversations with his brother Billy, who was not a teetotaler.

Dylan Lewis: In today’s world of revivals and product extensions, I wouldn’t be surprised if someone attempts to reintroduce Billy Beer.

Bill Mann: It turns out that revival has already occurred.

Dylan Lewis: It has? When did this happen?

Bill Mann: Yes, Dylan. In 2018, the Uptown Brewing Company in Snow Hill, North Carolina, started producing Billy Beer again.

Dylan Lewis: That’s a great reminder for fans of Billy Beer and shareholders of Boston Beer alike: raise a glass to Jimmy Carter this weekend. His state funeral will be held in Washington, DC on January 9th. For investors, keep in mind that the stock market will be closed Thursday next week. When you raise that glass in celebration, let’s aim for moderation. On a related note, the U.S. Surgeon General, Vivek Murthy, has recently issued guidance urging alcoholic drinks to carry warnings about links to preventable cancer. Asit, what are your thoughts on this news affecting shares of AB InBev and Diageo?

Asit Sharma: First and foremost, it’s important information. Many people might not realize that alcohol consumption can…

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Alcohol Consumption Trends: The Adaptation of Major Breweries Amid Changing Consumer Habits

Subheading: The Shift in Alcohol Consumption During and After the Pandemic

The recent surgeon general’s warning about alcohol’s cancer risk has reopened discussions about alcohol consumption. However, its impact on major brewers and spirits sellers may not be as severe as one might think. During the pandemic, we noticed younger individuals decreasing their alcohol intake because social gatherings were limited. Many of these habits have persisted as society has reopened. Consequently, breweries and spirits manufacturers worldwide have adjusted their offerings to align with a demographic increasingly opting for less alcohol. This trend has prompted significant innovations within the industry.

For instance, Anheuser-Busch anticipates that 20% of its sales will derive from non-alcoholic beverages by 2025. This statistic illustrates the industry’s shift towards catering to consumers seeking alternatives. Other manufacturers are expected to introduce more energy drinks and flavorful non-alcoholic options, but overall, these trends may not devastate the industry.

Subheading: Regulations and Creativity in the Alcohol and Restaurant Sectors

Dylan Lewis: Conversely, the recent regulations may spur creativity in the industry, Bill.

Bill Mann: Without commenting on the implications of the surgeon general’s warning, it’s worth noting that alcohol’s health risks are not new information. This warning acts as another hurdle for alcohol suppliers and the restaurant sector, which is grappling with several challenges. We are witnessing reduced restaurant traffic, declining consumer spending, and rising inflation costs. As Asit highlighted, younger consumers are drinking less compared to previous generations.

Subheading: Keeping an Eye on Investing Trends in 2025

Dylan Lewis: This discussion could also serve as motivation for participants in Dry January. However, before we wrap up, I want to hear each of your thoughts on notable investing stories for 2025. Asit, what are you monitoring in this space?

Asit Sharma: Well, Dylan, over the past year, we’ve seen multiple fintech companies collapse, with a significant case being Snaps, which reportedly has about $100 million in customer funds unaccounted for. Even at the beginning of 2025, other smaller firms, like Tally, have also announced closures. This situation highlights a critical point: when utilizing a fintech app that claims to offer FDIC insurance through a banking partner, it’s essential to understand that not all companies provide the same level of security. Many serve merely as intermediaries, creating ambiguity over account responsibilities. It’s a reminder to conduct thorough research before investing your money. If your bank offers a competitive interest rate, such as 4%, that can be a safer option.

Dylan Lewis: Bill, do you have any cautionary insights for investors?

Bill Mann: Indeed, I would advise caution. The US stock market has outperformed other global markets for good reasons over the past decade. Currently, US equities have a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio in the high 30s. This figure suggests that investors may be expecting substantial returns in a market heavily influenced by a few dominant companies, which have gained several trillion dollars in market capitalization recently. Moving on to a lighter topic, I’m curious about the future value of ‘fart coin’ by the end of 2025.

Dylan Lewis: We’ll revisit this discussion in 2025 to see how ‘fart coin’ performs. Thank you, Bill and Asit. Up next, we’ll hear from Motley Fool CEO Tom Gardner, who will share his insights on critical market indicators for 2025. Stay tuned, and you’re listening to Motley Fool Money.

Subheading: Revisiting Financial Strategies Ahead of the New Year

Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. I’m Dylan Lewis. With the start of a new year, many individuals are reevaluating their investment strategies and household finances as part of their resolutions. Recently, Motley Fool CEO Tom Gardner shared his investing playbook for 2025 in a special episode of our premium podcast, Stock Advisor Round Table. In his conversation with my colleague, Laurine Horst, Tom discussed key investment principles, market indicators, and the current state of Bitcoin as it hovers around the $100,000 mark.

Loren Horst: Tom, welcome.

Tom Gardner: Great to be here, Lauren.

Loren Horst: To kick off, what guidance do you have for investors who aim to succeed in the stock market this year?

Tom Gardner: The strategy I suggest is a timeless one. While we have specific principles that guide us at Motley Fool, the overarching theme is being long-term oriented. Individual years can be unpredictable, with swings such as a 27% drop or a 41% rise. Such events can happen at any time; predicting them is challenging. My hunch is that 2025 may be a mediocre year for returns, but I don’t base my investment approach on short-term predictions.

I encourage investors to ask themselves critical questions like how long they plan to hold their investments, how much volatility they can tolerate, and what their expectations are. For someone with a time horizon of over 10 years who can withstand a 40% drop, their strategy would be quite different compared to someone preparing to retire in five years who prefers stability and lower volatility. These insights can guide different investment choices, such as favoring dividend earners or larger-cap companies.

My advice for 2025, as in every year, is to know yourself and continuously assess your financial situation, which can change over time. Life events, such as having children, often bring about new expenses that need to be planned for.

Market Insights: Navigating Growth Stocks and the Impact of Cash Reserves

Unforeseen circumstances, such as family health issues, can demand unexpected financial resources. It’s crucial to prepare for the unpredictable. Regularly evaluating your personal situation—including your temperament, investment horizon, and life preferences—can lead to a more tailored investment approach. While the stock market has seen significant growth, particularly among growth stocks, a cautious stance is advisable for the average investor.

Loren Horst: Your insights naturally lead into discussing the Potential Growth Indicator (PGI). This metric is a frequent topic for us because it provides regular insights. Essentially, the PGI compares the amount of cash in taxable money market accounts to the total value of U.S. stocks. A higher PGI suggests greater investor confidence. What does the current PGI indicate for typical stock advisor members?

Tom Gardner: Currently, the PGI sits at approximately 10.9%. This figure represents the percentage of cash available compared to total stock market value. With 10.9% cash, it reveals that roughly 11% of stock value is not actively invested. If this number declines to around 8%, it signals trouble; there wouldn’t be new investments to fuel company growth. At this level, 10.9% is viewed as fairly normal, though ideally, we’d prefer to see it higher. A figure reaching up to 15% suggests substantial cash reserves are inactive.

Historically, when market anxiety surged, as in March 2020 during the pandemic, cash on the sidelines spiked to around 19-20%. That point usually marks an opportune time for long-term investment, despite the fear of deeper market drops. The financial crisis saw cash reserves hit 50%, a historical anomaly. Today, at 10.9%, we find ourselves in a generally comfortable range, but we must also consider cash flows from abroad. Notably, Masayoshi Son’s meeting with President Trump about a potential $100 billion investment in U.S. AI infrastructure underscores this influx. Discussions even flirted with $200 billion. [laughs]

This context reflects a broader, business-friendly U.S. environment, led by policies promoting deregulation. While such changes bring numerous advantages, they could also present challenges. However, the U.S. remains home to the world’s most innovative companies, fueling growth further. This influx of international capital might mean that the current PGI doesn’t represent the complete picture of the market’s health or valuation.

For investors with a lower tolerance for market fluctuations or shorter time frames—like those needing to access funds within three to five years—it’s wise to consider conservative versus aggressive investment strategies detailed on the Motley Fool site. This doesn’t necessitate an immediate sale of aggressive stocks; rather, it might be beneficial to trim positions to reduce exposure to high-growth investments. Begin funneling new investments into large-cap stocks, dividends, and lower beta options. Even though the anticipated returns may not seem thrilling—around 11.1% per year could feel modest—recalling that such returns can be satisfactory is key. A tendency to expect higher returns indicates market exuberance that may lead to risky investments.

With shorter investment horizons and lower risk tolerance, investors should reassess their strategies. The PGI suggests considering a diversified approach with positions in safer assets, alongside maintaining a small cash position of about 10% as a buffer.

Loren Horst: Important to highlight is that stocks aren’t the only asset class for cash alternatives. Bitcoin also gained substantial momentum, having crossed the $100,000 mark in 2024—a polarizing development for many investors. As a long-time supporter of Bitcoin, what are your thoughts on this surge?

Tom Gardner: Bitcoin has surged past $100,000, bringing its market cap to an impressive two trillion dollars. For skeptics, this valuation raises eyebrows, suggesting that an asset, which some deem worthless, has managed to gain such financial clout. Historical parallels can be enlightening; John Tran’s “Famous Financial Fiascos” vividly details past market failures.

Critics of Bitcoin assert that we are merely at the beginning of another speculative chapter. Yet it prompts a vital question regarding value assignments in commodities like gold, which might not provide tangible utility beyond speculation. If gold, often valued above 18 trillion, hinges mostly on such speculative elements, what distinguishes it from Bitcoin’s secure and limited supply? This reflection is crucial to understanding evolving investments, particularly among younger generations who will influence future valuations.

Bitcoin’s Volatility: Perspectives and Investment Strategies

Cryptocurrency’s Digital Relevance Amidst Traditional Assets

This holiday season, discussions about investments can often lead to heated debates—especially regarding Bitcoin. A significant demographic, specifically young adults, are increasingly focused on their digital attributes rather than traditional assets. As one observer noted, why would someone in their 20s prefer tangible gold bars as gifts when their lives are deeply intertwined with digital platforms? Many find success and inspiration through their online presence, prompting skepticism about Bitcoin’s legitimacy. According to a recent poll on Twitter, 52% of respondents asserted they would not change their opinions on Bitcoin, demonstrating how polarizing this topic can be.

As for my own views, I stand among the 48% who remain open to Bitcoin’s potential. I have invested in Bitcoin, with a cost basis as low as $20,000 and as high as $72,000. Presently valued at $104,000, Bitcoin’s market is known for its wild fluctuations, having previously dropped 70% several times. This volatility is similar to that experienced by well-known companies like Netflix. Such drastic price changes are to be expected, and I would not be surprised if Bitcoin returns to the $72,000 mark.

Institutional Interest Grows Amid Regulatory Changes

The current administration appears favorable toward cryptocurrencies, hinting at forthcoming regulatory shifts that could benefit Bitcoin’s stability. Notably, the driver behind Bitcoin’s recent rise is not merely speculation from individuals; institutional investments are significant contributors. With institutions now allocating about 2 trillion dollars into Bitcoin, they are acknowledging it as a legitimate asset class. Many institutions are opting to include a small percentage of Bitcoin, akin to how I began investing.

Having typically suggested a 1-3% allocation of portfolios toward Bitcoin, I emphasize that this digital asset is not an all-or-nothing investment. For those still contemplating the right time to enter at current valuation levels, my advice remains consistent: starting with a 1% allocation is prudent. As the leading digital asset, Bitcoin plays an essential role in a rapidly digitizing investment landscape.

Expert Insights for Investors: Tips and Recommendations

Dylan Lewis: For our Motley Fool premium members, you can access the full episode featuring Tom Gardner, who discusses investing strategies for 2025 and shares three recommended stocks. If you are not a member and wish to enhance your investing skills, visit fool.com/signup.

Let’s take a quick break. When we return, Asit Sharma and Bill Mann will share resolutions related to finance and highlight stocks worth watching. Stay tuned for more insights on Motley Fool Money.

Personal Finance Tips: Monthly Check-Ins

Asit Sharma: In line with financial resolutions, I suggest we adopt a monthly review system. Each month, take a moment to assess your progress toward your financial goals. With the convenience of technology, setting reminders for this check-in is easier than ever, thus promoting accountability.

Dylan Lewis: January 1st doesn’t have to be the only time for resolutions. You can start improving whenever you wish. It’s about consistent personal growth.

Bill Mann: Indeed, you don’t have to adhere strictly to the traditional timeline for resolutions.

Dylan Lewis: Now, turning to our stock tracking segment, Rick Engdahl has a query for us. Bill, what are your current interests in the stock market?

Bill Mann: I’m focused on Darden Restaurants, the operator of popular dining establishments like Olive Garden and Ruth’s Chris Steak House. The restaurant sector has faced significant challenges due to increased labor and ingredients costs. The emergence of tariffs could also critically impact their already thin profit margins. I am particularly curious about how these economic trends will influence their operations.

Rick Engdahl: Do you have a personal favorite among Darden’s restaurants?

Bill Mann: I enjoy visiting Ruth’s Chris; it’s a unique dining experience.

Rick Engdahl: I learned to cook during the pandemic, so I tend to shy away from steakhouses now! [laughs]

Dylan Lewis: We’ll be collecting Rick’s recipes throughout 2025. Asit, please share your stock watch list for the week.

Asit Sharma: Dylan, I want to highlight a recent headline regarding the renewed interest in film releases, such as the IMAX re-release of “Interstellar.” The excitement reflects broader trends in entertainment consumption…

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IMAX: A Rising Star in 2025’s Movie Landscape

This discussion reminded me of my colleague Meilin Quinn’s insights on IMAX from last year as a potential investment opportunity. Once experiencing a downturn, particularly in its Chinese market, IMAX appears to be on a positive trajectory in 2024. Analysts forecast a substantial $1.2 billion in global box office receipts tied to its platform in 2025. Furthermore, the company’s system installations are increasing, providing revenue through both installations and licensing. IMAX is set to benefit from a highly anticipated lineup of films.

Currently, IMAX is cash flow positive, and projections indicate that its cash flow will continue to rise in the coming years. Although investing in IMAX carries some risk, the film industry is clearly shifting towards grander productions, making it a company to watch in 2025.

Dylan Lewis: Rick, do you prefer IMAX over the Darden Restaurant Chain portfolio?

Rick Engdahl: I think so. When it comes to watching movies, I either enjoy them at home or go for the full IMAX experience.

Dylan Lewis: That’s definitely going on your watch list this week. Bill, Asit, thank you for sharing your radar stocks, and Rick, thanks for contributing your thoughts. This wraps up this week’s Motley Fool Radio Show. The show was mixed by Rick Engdahl. I’m Bill Lewis. Thanks for tuning in, and we’ll catch you next time.

Randi Zuckerberg, former director of market development and spokesperson for Facebook, and sister of Mark Zuckerberg, is on The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Asit Sharma has stakes in Microsoft. Bill Mann holds shares in Berkshire Hathaway. Dylan Lewis holds no positions in any mentioned stocks. Loren Horst is invested in Berkshire Hathaway. Rick Engdahl maintains investments in Berkshire Hathaway, Boston Beer, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Netflix. Tom Gardner owns Bitcoin, Meta Platforms, and Netflix. The Motley Fool’s positions include Berkshire Hathaway, Bitcoin, Boston Beer, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Netflix. Recommendations include Diageo Plc. The following options are recommended: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. Full disclosure policy available.

The views and opinions expressed herein belong to the author and do not necessarily represent the views of Nasdaq, Inc.

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