FedEx Faces Tough Year as Market Performance Lags Behind S&P 500
Valued at $64.4 billion, FedEx Corporation (FDX) is a Memphis-based leader in transportation, e-commerce, and business services. The company provides a range of logistics and transportation solutions, including express and small-package delivery, freight shipping, supply chain management, and customs brokerage, among others.
Recent Performance: A Closer Look
Over the past year, FDX shares have not kept pace with the broader market. While the company saw a gain of 12.6%, the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has surged by nearly 22.5%. Year-to-date figures for 2025 show that FDX stock has dipped by 4.9%, contrasting with a slight 4.2% increase in the SPX.
Comparative Analysis with Industry Peers
When comparing FDX to the Pacer Industrials and Logistics ETF (SHPP), the picture is clearer. The ETF has gained approximately 3% over the last year. However, its stronger 6% increase year-to-date highlights FDX’s struggles in this sector.
Challenges Ahead: Key Issues Impacting Performance
The underperformance of FDX can be attributed to disappointing revenues, largely caused by a prolonged decline in U.S. industrial production, which has hit demand for less-than-truckload services. Additionally, the company has been navigating the complexities of post-COVID market adjustments, a slowdown in U.S. domestic demand, and the end of its contract with the U.S. Postal Service.
Quarterly Results Show Mixed Signals
On December 19, FDX shares rose 1% following the release of its Q2 earnings. The company achieved an adjusted EPS of $4.05, which exceeded Wall Street’s expectation of $3.90. However, revenue fell short at $21.97 billion, missing forecasts of $22.04 billion. For the full year, FDX anticipates an adjusted EPS range of $19 to $20.
Market Expectations and Analyst Sentiment
Looking ahead to the current fiscal year, due to conclude in May, analysts project a 7.5% growth in FDX’s EPS, estimating it at $19.14 on a diluted basis. FDX’s earnings have shown variability, exceeding consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters but missing on one occasion. Analysts covering FDX stock are generally optimistic, with a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy.” This includes 16 “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” nine “Holds,” and one “Strong Sell.”
Latest Analyst Ratings and Price Targets
The current outlook is more positive than a month ago, with fewer analysts recommending a “Strong Sell.” On February 3, Loop Capital assigned a “Hold” rating for FDX with a price target of $283, suggesting a potential upside of 5.8% from its present price. Meanwhile, the average price target stands at $320.22, indicating a 19.7% premium over current levels, while the highest target of $372 offers an ambitious upside potential of 39.1%.
On the date of publication, Neha Panjwani did not hold positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information is provided for informational purposes only. For further details, please refer to the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Nasdaq, Inc.
