Market Trends and Performance
As the curtains rose on the new week and month, the US wheat futures stumbled into a sea of red. Despite the neutral to bear-friendly data from NASS, winter wheat futures managed to stage a rally leading into the 3-day Holiday weekend. However, the spring wheat sector failed to keep pace, closing 3 ½ to 6 cents down. Chicago prices, while 8 cents shy of their highs, still secured gains closing between 8 ¾ to 12 ¾ cents higher on the day. Closing the week, July SRW showed a net gain of 6 ¼ cents but remained at a 3 ½ cent loss for March. HRW futures also saw a similar tale, finishing corners (~9 cents) off their highs for the close. Nevertheless, the front month gains of 5 ½ to 7 cents supported July HRW, limiting the week’s loss to a mere 5 cents and flipping the board to a net 5 ½ cents higher for the month.
Market Sentiment and Trading Activity
According to CFTC data from Friday, managed money deepened their net short position in CBT wheat, increasing it by 11,532 contracts to 92,102 as of March 26. On the other hand, activities in Kansas City displayed a similar sentiment, with an addition of 4,781 contracts to their net short position, totaling 42,638 by the end of last Tuesday.
Recent Agricultural Reports
The recently published Prospective Plantings data revealed that winter wheat area stood at 34.135 million acres, a tad below the 34.7 million earlier anticipated. The total wheat area summed up to 47.498 million acres compared to the 49.575 million planted in the previous year and the expected 47.3 million. Notably, other spring area was surveyed at 11.335 million acres, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 135,000 and surpassing the average estimate.
Additionally, the quarterly wheat count unveiled 1.087 billion bushels as of March 1st, including 272 million bushels on farm and 816 million off farm. The market had anticipated wheat stocks to hover around the 1.05 billion bushels mark, in contrast to 941 million surveyed last year. Quarter 3 usage saw a decline of 38 million bushels from the previous year, with a total use of 333 million.
Current Wheat Futures Figures
May 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.60 1/4, marking a 12 3/4 cents increase, although currently down 7 1/2 cents. On the other hand, Jul 24 CBOT Wheat finished at $5.75 3/4, up by 13 cents, but currently trading 7 3/4 cents below. May 24 KCBT Wheat settled at $5.85 1/4, up by 7 cents; however, currently down by 13 3/4 cents. In comparison, Jul 24 KCBT Wheat concluded at $5.79 3/4, noting a 5 3/4 cents improvement but currently trading 13 1/4 cents lower. Lastly, May 24 MGEX Wheat wrapped the session at $6.45, indicating a decrease of 6 cents and maintaining at 6 1/4 cents down at the moment.
Alan Brugler does not hold any positions in the mentioned securities directly or indirectly at the time of publishing this article. All the data presented here is purely for informational purposes.
The opinions and views expressed in this piece are strictly those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the stance of Nasdaq, Inc.
