Wheat Markets Experience Varied Movements Amid Steady Demand
Chicago Futures Decline as KC and MPLS Contracts Show Modest Gains
The wheat complex experienced a mixed day in the markets on Friday. Chicago SRW futures saw small declines, with December dropping 4 1/4 cents to close modestly lower. Over the week, however, March futures increased by 9 ¼ cents. In contrast, KC HRW contracts gained between 1 to 1 ¾ cents today, while earlier months were slightly lower; overall, March climbed 13 cents since last Friday. Meanwhile, MPLS spring wheat remained steady to 2 ½ cents lower at the close, though March is up 4 ¾ cents for the week.
Traders Adjust Positions Following CFTC Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report from CFTC revealed that speculators added 10,268 contracts to their net short position in CBT wheat, bringing it to 69,386 contracts—the highest count since August. In the KC wheat market, net short positions rose by 7,769 contracts to reach 38,430 contracts.
Export Sales Continue to Impress
Thursday’s Export Sales data highlighted a 33% year-over-year increase in wheat and product shipments, totaling 10.844 million metric tons (MMT) for the current marketing year. This figure represents 48% of the USDA’s estimated total for the year, slightly behind the usual 50% pace. Current total commitments stand at 15.698 MMT, which is 20% higher compared to last year and constitutes 70% of the USDA forecast, just below the average pace of 73%.
French Crop Status and Ukrainian Projections
In France, 96% of the soft wheat crop has now been planted, up from 93% the previous week and significantly higher than the 87% mark from last year. Approximately 86% of the crop is reported to be in good or excellent condition—a slight decline from the prior week but an improvement from last year’s 77% rating. Meanwhile, Argus Media predicts a 1.3 MMT rise in Ukrainian wheat production for 2025 to 23.7 MMT. The Russian wheat crop is also projected to increase slightly to 81.5 MMT, a 0.2 MMT rise from the previous year. Furthermore, Russia plans to elevate its wheat export tariff by 32% to $48.57 per metric ton starting December 11.
Wheat Closing Prices
Dec 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.42 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents.
Mar 25 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.57 1/4, down 1 cent.
Dec 24 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.37 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents.
Mar 25 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.53 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents.
Dec 24 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.68 1/2, unchanged.
Mar 25 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.96 1/2, down 2 cents.
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
