Wheat Market Update: Traders Reflect Mixed Signals Amid Weather Changes

Wheat Futures Conclude Week with Varied Movements

The wheat market entered the weekend with mixed signals. Soft red wheat contracts remained sluggish, as Chicago SRW futures ended the day steady to down 1 ½ cents. Over the week, March futures dropped by 19 ¼ cents. Meanwhile, KC HRW contracts showed slight gains, closing up fractionally to 2 cents; however, March futures decreased 12 ¼ cents this week. Conversely, MPLS spring wheat futures were steady to up by 3 ¾ cents, supported mainly by front months. March’s decline here was limited to just 8 ¼ cents this week.

Weather Patterns Influence Future Outlook

The coming week anticipates precipitation in the eastern Southern Plains, extending into some SRW areas. The 8–14 day forecast appears wetter for significant parts of the country, indicating above-normal temperatures and no imminent threats of winter kill.

Trader Positions Show Increased Bearish Sentiment

According to the Commitment of Traders data, as of December 17, spec funds in Chicago wheat increased their bearish stance, adding 20,622 contracts to achieve a net short of 87,401 contracts. In the Kansas City market, they reduced their net short by 3,369 contracts, bringing their total to 33,067 contracts by Tuesday.

Export Sales Reflect Strong Performance Despite Challenges

Recent export sales data indicated total wheat and product shipments reaching 11.316 million metric tons (MMT), representing a 29% increase from the previous year. This total accounted for 48% of the new USDA forecast, though it trails behind the 53% average pace. Current commitments stand at 16.317 MMT, which is 9% above last year and 71% of the USDA marketing year’s export target, lagging behind the 78% average pace.

Russia Sets Export Quota Amid Global Market Adjustments

In a global context, Russia announced an export quota of 10.6 MMT for the period from February 15 to June 30. This is a tight control compared to last year’s quota of 29 MMT for grain exports.

Closing Prices for Key Wheat Contracts

Mar 25 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.33, unch.

May 25 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.42 3/4, down 3/4 cent.

Mar 25 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.44 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents.

May 25 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.52 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents.

Mar 25 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.90 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents.

May 25 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.98 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents.

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have any direct or indirect positions in the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data presented here are intended solely for informational purposes. For further details, please refer to the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.