The wheat market is experiencing downward pressure, with Chicago SRW contracts falling by 18 to 20 cents and KC HRW futures down 17 to 18 cents as of midday on September 26. Meanwhile, MPLS spring wheat prices have also decreased by 17 to 18 cents. This decline is attributed to uncertainty surrounding Black Sea exports, as Ukraine has proposed to keep vessels moving but no formal agreement with Russia has been reached.
Export sales for the new crop stand at 6.68 million metric tons (MMT), down 26% from last year, representing only 32% of the USDA’s export projection and lagging behind the 37% five-year average. The annual spring wheat tour reported an average yield estimate of 48 bushels per acre (bpa), slightly below last year’s 49.0 bpa but above the five-year average of 45.8 bpa. Additionally, the Russian wheat crop is estimated at 90 MMT with projected exports for 2026/27 at 44.5 MMT, while the French harvest is reportedly 99% complete with 65% rated good/excellent.
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