On Tuesday, the wheat complex experienced significant rallies, with Chicago SRW futures rising by as much as 45 cents in July contracts, hitting the limit. Kansas City HRW futures also surged, reaching the limit from an increase of 27 ¼ cents, while MPLS spring wheat contracts rose between 17 ½ to 37 ½ cents. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBT) and Kansas City (KC) markets will have expanded trading limits of 70 cents on Wednesday.
The USDA’s recent Crop Production report revealed winter wheat production at 1.048 billion bushels, falling short of estimates of 1.211 billion bushels. HRW production is estimated at 514.8 million bushels, while SRW is at 300.9 million bushels, and white winter wheat at 231.8 million bushels. Overall, wheat production is projected at 1.561 billion bushels, 186 million bushels below the average forecast.
As of July 25, winter wheat ratings dropped to 28% good/excellent, a 3% decline, which is the lowest rating since at least 2000 for HRW states, averaging a Brugler500 index of 227. In contrast, SRW states averaged 358, marking the lowest for this week since 2019.
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