On July 3, 2023, sugar prices continued to rise, with July NY world sugar #11 increasing by 3.13% to $14.52 and August London ICE white sugar #5 up by 2.78% to $451.90 per tonne. This follows last Friday’s gains of 0.93% and 2.94%, respectively.
The increase in sugar prices is attributed to concerns over a potential El Niño weather pattern affecting monsoon rains in India, which is the world’s second-largest sugar producer. India’s weather office has lowered its rainfall estimate for the June-September monsoon to 90% of the long-term average. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 82% chance that El Niño conditions will develop between May and July, which could disrupt sugar production in Brazil, India, and Thailand.
Additional bearish factors include a reported 55.3% increase in Brazilian sugar production for the 2026/27 season, totaling 2.475 million metric tons (MMT). Thailand’s sugar exports also rose by 29% year-on-year to 1.6 MMT during the first four months of 2026.
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