Cocoa prices increased significantly on Tuesday, with September ICE NY cocoa closing up 2.23% at $111 and July ICE London cocoa up 2.80% at $104. This follows a recent rally of over 20% in prices, nearing 5.5-month highs, driven by concerns over the upcoming West African cocoa crop. Heavy rainfall in Ivory Coast and Ghana has hindered farmers’ access to their farms and ports, threatening global supply. As of the last report, accumulated rainfall in both countries has already met typical monthly averages.
Looking ahead, the cocoa production forecast for the 2026/27 season indicates an 18% decline, estimated at 1.8 million metric tons, primarily due to adverse weather conditions linked to a forming El Niño event. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicates a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño,” which is expected to stress cocoa trees and further decrease yields. Meanwhile, despite these supply concerns, increased global inventories and weak North American and European demand have contributed to a bearish market outlook.
5 Stocks Our Experts Predict Could Double In the Next Year
By submitting your email, you'll also get a free pivot & flow membership. A free daily market overview. You can unsubscribe at any time.
