Cocoa prices surged on August 3, 2023, as September ICE NY cocoa closed up 0.69% and September ICE London cocoa rose 0.47%. The rally is attributed to concerns about a reduced cocoa crop in Ghana, projected to fall by 13% to 650,000 metric tons for the 2026/27 season, according to Ghana’s Cocoa Board. In addition, initial assessments from the Ivory Coast suggest a significant decline in production, estimating about 1.8 million metric tons, down 18% from the previous year.
Conversely, cocoa inventories have reached a two-year high of 3,384,965 bags, which adds downward pressure on prices. Additionally, while European cocoa grindings fell by 4.6% in Q2 2023 to 316,366 metric tons, North American grindings increased by 7.7% to 109,659 metric tons, and Asian cocoa demand saw a substantial rise of 25% to 224,646 metric tons. These mixed demand signals may influence future cocoa market trends.
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