**Sugar Prices Surge Amid Crude Oil and Production Concerns**
On Wednesday, October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) rose by 1.66%, closing at +0.30, while October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) increased 2.99%, closing at +15.50. The surge in sugar prices is largely attributed to a 3% increase in crude oil prices, which hit a 3.25-month high, raising concerns that sugar mills may shift production from sugar to ethanol, thereby tightening sugar supplies.
Thailand’s projected 2026/27 sugar production is expected to decline by 17% year-on-year to 10 million metric tons (MMT), while India’s government has reduced dealer stockholding limits to curb hoarding. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) also forecasts a 2026/27 global sugar deficit of 200,000 metric tons, following a previously projected surplus for 2025/26. Additionally, the USDA anticipates a global sugar production decrease by 6.5% for 2026/27, predicting a sharp drop for key producers such as Brazil and Thailand.
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