**Cocoa Prices Rebound Amid Crop Concerns**
Cocoa prices saw an uptick on Tuesday, with December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ26) closing up 51 points (+0.95%) and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ26) increasing by 37 points (+0.93%). This rise comes as prices rebound from 1.75-month lows due to short-covering spurred by forecasts of dry weather impacting crop yields in the Ivory Coast, which could reduce cocoa output in the 2026/27 season.
Preliminary assessments of the Ivory Coast cocoa crop indicate a significant decline in crop quality and quantity, with early estimates suggesting an output of only 1.8 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 season, a decrease of 18% from 2.2 MMT in 2025/26. In contrast, the cocoa regulator reported a 30% increase in harvested cocoa for the current season, totaling 2.06 MMT from June 2025 to June 2026. Additionally, Ghana’s Cocoa Board has projected a 13% drop in its cocoa production for the 2026/27 season, estimating yields at 650,000 MT.
Overall, rising inventories add downward pressure on cocoa prices, despite support from concerns regarding future weather conditions related to El Niño, which has historically affected crop yields in West Africa.
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