By Panu Wongcha-um and Kay Johnson
BANGKOK, Feb 19 (Reuters) – The early release of Thailand’s once-fugitive ex-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra represents to many a deal the influential billionaire made with his enemies to counter an even greater threat to the royalist-military establishment.
To some observers of Thailand’s convoluted politics, Thaksin’s parole after returning from self-imposed exile in August was the latest act in an elaborate effort to crush the hugely popular anti-establishment Move Forward party that finished first in last year’s election.
The Intricacies of Political Maneuvering
Thaksin’s release, following his return from exile in defiance of criminal convictions, is seen by some as a strategic move to navigate through the turbulent waters of Thai politics. The rise of the Move Forward party had posed a significant challenge to the established order, leading to intricate power plays and shifting alliances.
Move Forward, which advocates institutional reforms including some involving the monarchy, was blocked from forming a government by a Senate appointed by a junta that seized power in 2014 coup against a government led by Thaksin’s Pheu Thai party.
Three months later, Pheu Thai – which during the election campaign had shared Move Forward’s platform of ending military dominance of politics – formed its own coalition government that included some of the very figures involved in the 2014 coup.
The same day, Thaksin, 74, flew back to Thailand on a private jet and surrendered to authorities on various criminal convictions in absentia. He complained of chest pains and was transferred to a police hospital, where he remained until Sunday, the first day he was eligible for parole.
“His comeback has to do with the deal he made with the establishment,” said Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Thailand’s Ubon Ratchathani University.
Reuters requests for comments on Monday went unanswered. Thaksin’s family, party and Thai authorities all say there was no such quid pro quo. But many analysts are unconvinced.
From Threat to Negotiation
The political landscape in Thailand has seen drastic shifts, with Thaksin’s return and the subsequent alliances formed, serving as a testament to the evolving dynamics of power and influence in the country. The complexity of the situation has raised questions about the veracity of claims made by key stakeholders.
Thaksin’s pro-business agenda previously posed challenges to Thailand’s traditional patronage system, but Move Forward’s more radical proposals for reform, including potential amendments to laws regarding criticism of the monarchy, pushed the boundaries even further.
“Thaksin is flexible, he’s a dealmaker,” said Joshua Kurlantzik, senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations.
“He’s much less of an existential threat than Move Forward, and he’s shown that now by almost surely making a deal … and then doing what the establishment wants.”
The Turbulent History of Thai Politics
Thailand’s political history has been rife with tumultuous power struggles, with Thaksin once seen as the primary adversary to the established order – a fragile amalgamation of the military and entrenched business elites, fortified by staunch loyalty to the monarchy. The interplay of political forces has often been driven by the supreme reverence accorded to the monarchy within the country’s constitutional framework.
When Thaksin came to power in 2001 with a populist party, his policies aimed at boosting healthcare, rural development, and farming subsidies, were overshadowed by allegations of corruption and extrajudicial killings. Additionally, he faced accusations of challenging the monarchy’s authority, a charge he vehemently denied.
In 2006, a bloodless coup orchestrated by the military ousted Thaksin, but his loyalists continued to secure victories in general elections, leading to a prolonged period of political unrest culminating in the 2014 coup, aimed at curbing his influence once again.
Two significant developments paved the way for Thaksin’s return, notably the strong showing of Move Forward’s predecessor in the 2019 elections and subsequent student protests challenging long-standing pillars of Thai society, including the military’s repeated interventions in the name of protecting the crown.
The Shift in Political Tides
The rise of Move Forward in the 2023 elections and its subsequent deadlock in parliament signaled a monumental shift in Thai politics, with implications that were felt far and wide. Move Forward’s refusal to compromise on its proposal to amend laws safeguarding the monarchy stirred controversy and united conservative forces against the party’s ascent to power.
Analysts interpreted Thaksin’s unimpeded return as evidence of a tacit agreement struck during this period of political gridlock. The realignment of forces in Thai politics, marked by former adversaries banding together to suppress a rising alternative, painted a stark picture of the evolving dynamics of power.
The Hoisting of One-Time Rivals
Thaksin’s resurgence has cast him in an unforeseen role, as an instrument wielded by the establishment to stave off a potential challenge from the emerging political forces. This role reversal has been perceived as a consolidation of the establishment’s grip on power while neutralizing a potent opponent.
“Thaksin now has become more like a pawn rather than a mastermind,” observed political analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak, reflecting the shift in Thaksin’s position within the political spectrum.
As the political landscape in Thailand continues to evolve, it remains to be seen how Thaksin’s return and the subsequent dynamics of power play out in the long run.
(Writing by Kay Johnson; Editing by Nick Macfie)
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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