As of today, September arabica coffee prices (KCU26) have decreased by 1.29% to $4.00, while September ICE robusta coffee prices (RMU26) have increased by 1.27%, rising by $48. This follows a recent high, driven by heavy rains in Brazil, which delayed the coffee harvest, raising concerns about crop quality. Specifically, Minas Gerais, Brazil’s main coffee-growing region, experienced 31.3 mm of rain for the week ending June 28, 1,956% of the historical average.
In terms of inventory, ICE arabica coffee stocks have hit a 2.25-year low at 375,079 bags, while robusta inventories reached a 2.75-month high of 4,053 lots. The USDA has projected a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, a 14% year-over-year increase, but concerns about potential impacts from a “Super El Niño,” with a 67% probability of occurrence this year, could further affect production.
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