On August 3, 2023, WTI crude oil (CLQ26) closed at $69.89 per barrel, up $0.11 (+0.16%), while RBOB gasoline (RBQ26) fell by $0.0279 (-0.95%). This mixed market behavior occurred as crude oil prices recovered from a 4.25-month low, partly due to a decline in the dollar index and an increase in Middle Eastern oil supplies, with Saudi Arabian exports rising to 6.3 million barrels per day (bpd).
Despite recent gains, concerns linger about a potential supply glut as production levels from Saudi Arabia and the UAE approach pre-war figures. The UAE reported a 30% increase in shipments to over 3.9 million bpd in June. Meanwhile, US crude oil production decreased slightly to 13.81 million bpd as of June 26, while Baker Hughes reported a rise in active US oil rigs to 445, the highest in 13 months.
Adding downward pressure, a senior US official indicated significant progress in negotiations with Iran, potentially impacting future oil supply dynamics. The International Energy Agency projected a global oil consumption decline of 1.1 million bpd for the year, surpassing prior estimates.
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