On Wednesday, September arabica coffee (KCU26) closed at $272.88, up 1.24 cents (+0.45%), while July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) reached $3,710, gaining 127 cents (+3.55%). This marks a six-week high for coffee prices, driven by delayed harvests due to renewed rains in Brazil, with forecasts projecting over 50 millimeters (2 inches) of rainfall this week, affecting crop quality and field activities.
ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.25-year low of 388,956 bags, contributing to price support. Meanwhile, Brazil’s coffee production is expected to reach a record 71.9 million bags for the 2026/27 crop year, according to the USDA, despite projected weather disruptions from an anticipated “Super El Niño” with a 67% probability this year.
In contrast, Vietnam’s coffee exports surged 7.9% year-over-year in the first five months of 2026 to 922,000 MT, increasing negative pressure on robusta prices. Overall, market dynamics reflect a complex interplay between output challenges in Brazil and rising exports from Vietnam, impacting global coffee supply and pricing.
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