Coffee prices are facing downward pressure as Brazil accelerates its coffee harvest due to drier weather. On August 14, Brazil’s Cooxupe co-op reported that the coffee harvest was 81.1% complete, up 7 percentage points from the previous week, yet still trailing last year’s 86.1%. The September arabica coffee price (KCU26) has dropped by $5.60 (-1.54%), while robusta coffee (RMU26) is down $44 (-1.17%).
Colombia’s recent 7.4 magnitude earthquake is adding complexity to the coffee supply situation, impacting key coffee-growing provinces and causing intermittent disruptions in export traffic through the Buenaventura port. Despite the earthquake, no significant damage was reported to coffee processing facilities. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s coffee exports surged by 21.1% year-over-year during the first seven months of 2026, further leaning bearish on robusta prices.
Concerns about an impending El Niño weather pattern may affect future coffee production in Brazil, potentially delaying necessary rains for tree flowering in September and October. The USDA’s latest biannual forecast predicts a 6% increase in global coffee output for the 2026-27 season, reaching a record 189.7 million bags, largely due to favorable growing conditions in Brazil.
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