May ICE NY cocoa (CCK26) closed up 30 points (+0.90%) and May ICE London cocoa #7 (CAK26) closed up 19 points (+0.76%) on Thursday amid concerns about potential supply disruptions from a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz. This situation has led to increased shipping costs, impacting cocoa importers.
Key data reveals that Nigerian cocoa exports fell 4.6% year-over-year to 40,110 metric tons, with projections indicating a further 11% decrease in production for the 2025/26 season. Meanwhile, cocoa supplies from the Ivory Coast remain robust, with cumulative shipments at 1.48 million metric tons, unchanged from last year. The North American cocoa grindings dropped by 3.8% year-over-year to 106,087 metric tons, while European grindings fell by 7.8% to 325,895 metric tons, marking the lowest for a first quarter in 17 years.
Current drought conditions in West Africa and recent pay cuts for cocoa farmers—nearly 30% in Ghana and 57% in the Ivory Coast—could impact future supplies, despite abundant global cocoa inventories, which reached a 20-month high of 2,632,357 bags.
