December arabica coffee (KCZ26) closed at $276.80, down $4.10 (-1.46%) on Monday, while November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) fell to $33.21, down $0.59 (-1.74%). Prices have reached three-month lows, attributed to expectations of an abundant global coffee supply. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) projects a record global coffee production of 183.6 million bags for the 2025/26 season, resulting in a 3 million bag surplus, the first in five years.
Beneficial weather conditions, particularly in Brazil and Vietnam, are contributing to lower prices. Brazil’s Minas Gerais region received 33.4 mm of rain, 242% of the historical average, which is expected to enhance the 2026/27 harvest. Coffee exports from Brazil also surged, with August exports rising by 31% year-over-year to a record 4.155 million bags. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s coffee exports increased by 13.7% for the 2026 season, further impacting robusta prices.
Concerns about the potential impact of the El Niño weather pattern on Brazil’s coffee crop may provide some price support. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center anticipates this might be one of the strongest El Niño events in over 75 years, which could lead to adverse weather conditions affecting coffee production in both Asia and South America.
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