May arabica coffee (KCK26) closed down $7.15 (-2.41%) on Friday, while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) fell $86 (-2.48%). This decline comes as the Strait of Hormuz reopened, alleviating global shipping concerns that have impacted coffee supplies. Last Wednesday, arabica coffee hit a one-month low, as projections indicate a record Brazilian coffee crop of 75.9 million bags for 2026/27, surpassing previous estimates.
Vietnam’s coffee exports surged by 14% year-over-year during the first quarter of 2026, totaling 585,000 metric tons. Additionally, Brazil’s coffee exports decreased significantly, with reports showing a 31% year-over-year drop in March to 151,000 metric tons. Transformative weather conditions, including below-average rainfall affecting Brazil’s arabica coffee yields, are anticipated to further influence prices.
The International Coffee Organization has reported a slight drop in global coffee exports for the current marketing year, totaling 138.658 million bags, while forecasts predict an overall increase in world coffee production for 2025/26 to 178.848 million bags.
