May arabica coffee (KCK26) prices fell by $6.75 (2.28%) to a 1-week low, while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) dropped by $87 (2.50%) on April 3, 2023. The decline in coffee prices occurred after Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, alleviating global coffee supply concerns.
Expectations for a record Brazilian coffee crop, projected by Marex Group Plc at 75.9 million bags for 2026/27, have been driving down arabica prices, which reached a 1-month low last week. In Brazil, March coffee exports decreased 31% year-over-year to 151,000 metric tons, and the Mar green coffee exports fell 10% year-over-year to 2.65 million bags.
On the supply side, ICE robusta inventories have dropped to a 16-month low at 3,838 lots, while Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, experienced only 20% of the historical rainfall last week. In contrast, Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 14% year-over-year to 585,000 metric tons in early 2026, putting downward pressure on robusta prices.
