September arabica coffee (KCU26) closed down 2.06% to $332.00 per pound, while September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) fell 2.73% to $3,679 per ton on Thursday. The drop in arabica prices follows a significant earthquake measuring 7.4 in magnitude that struck Colombia on Monday, disrupting coffee exports from the country, which is the world’s second-largest arabica producer. Affected provinces, Caldas and Risaralda, account for about a quarter of Colombia’s coffee production.
Despite the disruptions, Colombia has partially resumed coffee exports through Buenaventura port, although traffic remains inconsistent. Arabica inventories reached a 2.75-year low of 236,430 bags, while robusta inventories increased to a 5-month high of 4,514 lots. Meanwhile, Vietnam reported a 21.1% year-on-year increase in coffee exports during the first half of 2026, further impacting robusta prices.
In longer-term forecasts, the USDA predicts a global coffee output rise of 6% to a record 189.7 million bags for the 2026-27 season, largely driven by favorable conditions in Brazil, which is projected to produce 71.9 million bags of coffee, an increase of 14% year-on-year.
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