October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) has risen by 1.57%, reaching a price increase of +0.26, while October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) has increased by 2.15%, gaining +11.00. Both markets are experiencing notable price surges, with London sugar hitting a 16-month high.
The upward trend is fueled by a forecast from Covrig Analytics predicting a global sugar deficit of -300,000 MT for the 2026/27 season, a significant change from expected surpluses in earlier estimates. Other analysts, including Green Pool Commodity Specialists and StoneX, have also adjusted their predictions for global sugar deficits to between -1.7 MMT and -3.3 MMT, influenced by lower sugar outputs in major producing countries like Brazil and potential disruptions due to weather patterns associated with El Niño.
Specifically, Brazil’s sugar production for June dropped by 26.3% year-over-year to 3.903 MMT, while the European Union’s production is projected to decline to its lowest level in 11 years, at 14.98 MMT. Moreover, India’s monsoon rainfall has been reported at 13% below normal, impacting the country’s sugar output, which is critical as India is the second-largest sugar producer globally.
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