On Monday, July NY world sugar #11 closed down 0.07 cents (-0.47%), and August London ICE white sugar #5 closed down 2.00 cents (-0.46%), reaching one-week lows. The drop in sugar prices follows the International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasting a record global sugar crop of 182 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season, reflecting a 3.5% year-over-year increase, along with a raised surplus estimate of 2.2 MMT, rebounding from a deficit of 3.46 MMT in the previous year.
Key future projections indicate a decline in global sugar production to 180 MMT for the 2026/27 season and an anticipated deficit of 262,000 MT, largely due to the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern affecting harvests in major producing countries such as India and Thailand. Citigroup projects Brazil’s sugar production for 2026/27 at 39.50 MMT, significantly lower than the government’s estimate of 43.95 MMT—and attributed this to an increasing diversion of sugarcane to ethanol production amid rising gasoline prices.
Additionally, sugar prices have been influenced by India’s four-month export ban that continues until September 30, aimed at safeguarding domestic supply, along with concerns regarding supply disruptions due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which impacts about 6% of the global sugar trade.
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