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Swine Market Outlook Sweaty Palms at Midday

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Lean Hogs Initial Surge Fades

Lean hogs kicked off Wednesday on a high note, but the enthusiasm dissipated as prices slipped back during midday trading. Despite this retreat, futures still hold steady in positive territory, with gains ranging from 27 to 57 cents.

Market Analysis and Forecasts

According to the USDA’s National Average Base Hog price, there was a slight dip of $1 to $80.02 earlier in the day. Similarly, the CME Lean Hog Index experienced a minor setback, falling by 11 cents to land at $83.48.

On Thursday, the USDA will unveil its much-anticipated quarterly Hogs & Pigs report. Market analysts anticipate a decrease in the Kept for breeding category, with estimates ranging between 95.2% and 98% compared to the previous year. However, the industry is seeing a silver lining in increased productivity, with predictions suggesting a 3.4% rise in pigs per litter compared to the previous year. The overall number of market hogs and all hogs is expected to remain at last year’s levels or slightly exceed them.

Technical Data and Performance Metrics

Meanwhile, the USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value recorded another drop of 60 cents on Wednesday morning, settling at $94.73. In terms of slaughter rates, the USDA estimated a total of 974,000 hog slaughters for the week, surpassing the numbers from both the previous week (972,000) and the corresponding period last year (965,000).

In the trading arena, April 24 Hogs are currently priced at $86.100, marking a notable increase of $0.525. May 24 Hogs are also on an upswing, trading at $92.000, reflecting a $0.250 climb. Similarly, April 24 Pork Cutout stands at $93.950, remaining unchanged for the time being.


On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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