Nvidia’s 2028 Rivals: The Legacy Chips Already in the Market

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Key Highlights on Data Center Revenue and Server Lifespan Estimates

  • Nvidia’s data center revenue skyrocketed from $47.5 billion in fiscal 2024 to $115.2 billion in fiscal 2025, with a projected total of $193.7 billion in fiscal 2026, culminating in about $309 billion across a two-year span.

  • Meta Platforms revised the estimated lifespan of its servers to 5.5 years in 2025, resulting in a $1.00 increase in earnings per share, while Amazon adjusted its server lifespan downward to five years, citing rapid advancements in AI technology.

  • Microsoft typically depreciates servers between two to six years, and Alphabet uses a six-year benchmark for servers and network equipment.

Nvidia’s recent growth in data center sales, with a 142% increase from fiscal 2024 to fiscal 2025, raises questions about future demand as chips delivered are still operational. Meta’s update on server lifespan directly affects its depreciation expenses, while Amazon’s re-evaluation indicates a faster turnover of AI hardware. Therefore, most servers purchased in 2024 and 2025 are unlikely to be retired by 2028, suggesting that any future demand must come from new capacity rather than replacement.

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